[NL2-NL10] nl2 - KQs tricky spot

    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Can't really call river here?

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $2.21
      Hero:
      $3.05

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:diamond: , J:diamond:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.07, 2 folds, BB calls $0.05.

      Flop: ($0.15) T:diamond: , 8:heart: , 3:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.15, Hero calls $0.15.

      Turn: ($0.45) J:club: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.21, Hero calls $0.21.

      River: ($0.87) 4:heart: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.5, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.87
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Philfox1985,

      Well, with his aggression it's kinda close. The problem is that you most likely only beat bluffs there. But what kind of hand could be 2barreling here. JT/Q9 other 2pairs/sets are possible. For that given reason I might even fold it on river if I don't expect him to 3barrel bluff like this.

      But definitely this might be one of the opponent I'd even consider calling, since his hand is towards to pure bluff or some stronger holding. According his bet sizing it might be even a bluff, why does he bet that weak on turn? Would he do that with 2pairs+? :)

      Best Regards.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      [QUOTE]But definitely this might be one of the opponent I'd even consider calling, since his hand is towards to pure bluff or some stronger holding. According his bet sizing it might be even a bluff, why does he bet that weak on turn? Would he do that with 2pairs+? smile [/quote]A large part of his range on the turn would appear to be draws given bet sizing, all of which would have missed on river. Question is then how likely is he to bluff the missed draw?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      A large part of his range on the turn would appear to be draws given bet sizing, all of which would have missed on river. Question is then how likely is he to bluff the missed draw?

      Well, that don't ask me. I wasn't playing on the tables, I don't know the table dynamics or anything. :D Don't have the stats for CBets. He may turn his 8x/99 even into bluff here sometimes to get rid of something like Tx. As you see the guy haven't been winning @ showdowns that much either. Could be a maniac who is bluffing a lot.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Sorry, it was meant as a rhetorical question.

      If I knew exactly how likely villians were to bluff their missed hands I could be profitably playing at some very high stakes :P
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Philfox1985
      Sorry, it was meant as a rhetorical question.

      If I knew exactly how likely villians were to bluff their missed hands I could be profitably playing at some very high stakes :P
      Well, that's why I am forcing you to think about the situation yourself as well and not to just get an answer. You have to pay attention during the game to opponents play. That's why I as well wrote 2 different kind of evaluations, it's always a but... if you are practically playing just against unknown then fold the river and let it be.