[NL2-NL10] nl2 - Raise draw on flop

    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Thoughts on line here?

      Usually I play fairly passive with draws, but it can be worth raise to take down pot without needing to hit?

      Its something I have to do to balance my range when I play live (3/4 handed against the same people at work - all strong players winning online at $0.10 - $0.50 SH), but maybe not so necessary at NL2?

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $2.73
      Hero:
      $3.77

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T:heart: , 9:diamond:
      3 folds, SB calls $0.01, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.04) Q:heart: , J:heart: , J:diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.03, Hero raises to $0.13, SB folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.10
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Philfox1985,

      Usually I play fairly passive with draws, but it can be worth raise to take down pot without needing to hit?

      Well, I don't really see why you should turn your hand into bluff here. :D I mean it's just a freeplay pot, is it really worth? Fight over few cents.

      Best Regards.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Need villian to fold >50% of the time to make the move directly profitable with any two cards, even with no equity.

      With the draw my odds of hitting turn don't change if villian flat calls, but often they will check to you on turn giving you the free card to try to hit.

      Problem only really comes if villian is likely to be 3 betting flop?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Need villian to fold >50% of the time to make the move directly profitable with any two cards, even with no equity.

      To win what? $0,04? :D You have invest $0,00 cent into the pot, just your forced blind. It's even more like 65% of the times. So do you expect him to fold his 65% of the range which is donking?

      With the draw my odds of hitting turn don't change if villian flat calls, but often they will check to you on turn giving you the free card to try to hit.

      But well he may easily Check on turn as well if he doesn't have a hand. Doubt that he is folding his Qx here.

      Problem only really comes if villian is likely to be 3 betting flop?

      Why shouldn't he? Any Jx is definitely 3betting while need to protect vs FD+SD+being OOP.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Originally posted by veriz
      Need villian to fold >50% of the time to make the move directly profitable with any two cards, even with no equity.

      To win what? $0,04? :D You have invest $0,00 cent into the pot, just your forced blind. It's even more like 65% of the times. So do you expect him to fold his 65% of the range which is donking?

      With the draw my odds of hitting turn don't change if villian flat calls, but often they will check to you on turn giving you the free card to try to hit.

      But well he may easily Check on turn as well if he doesn't have a hand. Doubt that he is folding his Qx here.

      Problem only really comes if villian is likely to be 3 betting flop?

      Why shouldn't he? Any Jx is definitely 3betting while need to protect vs FD+SD+being OOP.
      Surely we only need 50% folds.

      The pot before the raise is $0.10 as villian invested $0.03 & we call $0.03, before raising $0.09 on top.

      Would still argue that villian is more likley to check turn after calling raise.

      If villian had hit Jx then I don't mind giving up to a re-raise too much, he has a draw to a FH so our outs are lowered.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      The pot before the raise is $0.10

      Flop: ($0.04) + SB bets $0.03 = how do you get $0,10? Why do you calculate your Call into the pot? Before your decision you didn't invest the $0,03 yet.

      Would still argue that villian is more likley to check turn after calling raise.

      Did I argue about that? I said he is most likely going to Check all his hands which folding to your raise.

      If villian had hit Jx then I don't mind giving up to a re-raise too much, he has a draw to a FH so our outs are lowered.

      Well, you pretty much commit yourself when you do hit your straight and he is trapping you with QJ. :)


      Well, if you want to play this way then do it, I am not forcing to do the opposite. But I don't really understand if you are raising on such a flop why ain't ya playing it aggressively preflop to take down the few cents. ;)
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      I quite often do play fairly aggressively to pick up dead money pre-flop. Not sure why I didn't raise the SB after he completes, guess I was happy to see a flop with connectors, but you make a good point.

      To be honest I rarely do play my draws this aggressively, was interested to see an opinion of its merits so that is helpful, thanks for that.

      The equity calculations is a seperate point, I'm going to work this through for my own benefit & understanding assuming a pure bluff:

      We call flop & on turn bluff $0.10 into a pot of $0.10, we need opponent to fold >50% of the time to make bluff profitable.

      We raise $0.13 into a pot of $0.07 on flop, same final pot size and villian has put $0.05 into the pot just as before, infact the exact same situation as above, but not split over two streets. However the figures show we need around 2/3'ds fold to be directly profitable, as you stated correctly.


      The difference comes because in the first scenario we have written off the $0.03 call on the flop in our equity calculations, and instead assumed its part of the money we can win. This is where my confusion lay, and why I assumed we need 50% fold equity on flop.

      Of course, the profitabilty of the play is due to the fact we still do have equity if/when we get called, so we will never actually do this with a hand that doesn't have outs.