[NL2-NL10] 03/05 SSS Adv. Coaching - resteals against small stealraises

    • xarry2
      xarry2
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 834
      "I hope i get my question right in english: i got a problem with steal situations. when players steal with 2,5bb
      and i resteal according to the resteal chart and they only call then with a tight range i think i loose money in the long term.
      is it maybe possible to make a small 3bet like 8bb and fold to a push? i discussed this with jaro and hes also not sure"



      To start with, a resteal with more than 50% equity against the stealing range does not always guarantee profit.

      Example on NL 200:

      We are in the BU and resteal vs. CO.

      ATS: 20
      Raisesize: 3BB
      Stacksize: 25BB
      We resteal KQs which has 51.4% equity.

      a) 100% calling range

      EV = 25BB*0.514 - 25BB*0.486 = +0.7BB


      b) 60% calling range

      EV = 0.4*4.5BB + 0.6[25BB*0.453 - 25BB*0.547] = 0.39BB


      c) 30% calling range

      EV = 0.7*4.5BB + 0.3[25BB*0.366 - 25*0.634] = +1.14


      The 1st and the 2nd case are only a bit profitable. Of course we can take these plays with a very small EV, too but it is very swingy. And if we have a stack which is only a bit bigger or a 2.5BB stealraise we can easily make loss . This is due to mainly 2 variables which aren't included in the resteal chart:

      - the raisesize
      - our stacksize


      A small raisesize and a big stack can greatly decrease our EV. Thus the question mentioned above really seems important to discuss.
      As well as Jaro and aaltvater I'm not sure how to react in these situations in order to create the highest EV.
      There are mainly 2 possibilities:

      - 3bet small and fold to a push
      - tighten up our resteal hand requirements


      Lets deal with the latter first. It is imo the easier one. If we face situations where we have a bigger stack and a small stealraise then
      we can simply tighten up our resteal range. ATS 30 => take resteal hands according to ATS 20. As a result we create a margin of safety.
      Its an easy solution which however does not provide maximum EV.

      So far I only made some thoughts about the other possibility since it was questionend in the coaching. I have no experience with it. This thread should rather be an inspiration to a discussion. Experiments with this play should only be done by advanced players!

      The other solution can create much additional value since it will then also be possible to play 3bet bluffs.
      However it can imo only be used in certain circumstances.

      Is it possible at all to fold to a push after we made a 3bet?

      This is a question of pot odds. Consequently the key indicator is our stacksize.
      Even with a 2.5BB stealraise and a 3bet 2.5times the raise it won't be possible to fold to a push when we only have a 15BB stack.
      Thus I think 3bet/fold can only be played with a 20BB+ (maybe 18BB+) stack. This is however no problem.
      Imagine the initial example with a 15BB stack:

      b2) 60% calling range

      EV = 0.4*3BB + 0.6[15BB*0.453 - 15BB*0.547] = +0.354BB

      If we then add a small margin of safety we will be able to defend profitable with a normal resteal even against small stealraises.

      From now on I really find it hard to give exact recommendations. There are simply too many different variables
      which must be considered into our decision.
      Imo 3bet/fold is correct against players who steal very aggressive and with a small raisesize against us.
      But this play is only possible when they have a tight pushing range in addition.
      These are all hands we would resteal up to a 50% ATS:
      A5o+, A2s+
      KTo+, K8s+
      QTs+
      44+

      Even against a 10% pushing range (which is tight) we can't fold any of them (maybe A5o-A8o) after we made a 3bet
      as long as we're not getting worse pot odds than 2:1. (33% equity)
      This is the case when:

      stealraise 2BB, 3bet 2.5 times => stack > 15BB
      stealraise 2.5BB, 3bet 2.5 times => stack> 18.75BB
      stealraise 3BB, 3bet 2.5 times => stack> 22.5


      => Imo we can't play 3bet/fold with normal resteal hands (within the normal stacksize range) unless our opponent pushes very tight (something like AJ+, 99+) which is mostly unrealistic on higher limits.

      3bet/fold is thus only possible when we play a pure bluff 3bet with a trash hand.
      The break even fold equities are:

      3bet 2.5 times the raise: 71.4%
      3bet 3 times the raise: 75%

      So a pure bluff is only profitable when we see more than 75% foldequity. Our opponent must be able to fold 75%
      of his stealing range. at least a 40% ATS is necessary imo. This seems much, but often a bigstack raises any2 from the SB if a SSSP is in the BB.

      I have said enough imo now. You see that this is an open field. I would be happy about some comments and a discussion.
      Only so it will be possible to develop kind of a strategy for defending against small stealraises.



      [B]
      Summary[/B]

      With a normal stack and an equity based stealing hand it is imo not possible to play 3bet/fold. Thus we can only play 3bet/fold with pure bluffs.
      Now we have to consider some things in order to make this play profitable and not easily exploitable:

      - only bluff if we have enough FE (high ATS or very tight pushing range)
      - only play 3bet fold with total trash so that we can still fold
      - we have to play ALL!!! resteals (bluffs and equity raises) exactly the same way against the specific opponent
      - never show a total bluff. otherwise our foldequity is gone
      - don't overdo bluff-restealing
      - our opponent knows we're playing tight SSS and will thus steal extremely loose against us

      Consequently, if we have made a small 3bet our opponent can't tell wether we're on a bluff or not since we always resteal against him this way.

      The whole thing stands and falls with his pushing range! It must stay tight!
      Otherwise we won't be able to bluff profitable.
  • 7 replies
    • iasi
      iasi
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2005 Posts: 2
      Hi xarry,

      I like your post very much but if you take in account that there are blinds already paid whenever you 3-bet-bluff, it will decrease the foldequity needed.

      2,5 times:

      BU: 61%
      SB: 58,9%
      BB: 56,7%

      3 times:

      BU: 65%
      SB: 63,6%
      BB: 61,9%

      So if we want to play 3-bet-bluffs, we should resteal 2 and 2,5BB steal with 2,5times stealsize as we don´t need to create as much foldequity and don´t commit that much of our stack. Still the situations should be very well selected and we should mix it with resteal-pushes of hands that we are willing to bring to SD anyway.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hey guys,

      I got an even lower value for BE FE. When villain is stealing from BU or CO we get SB as extra dead money.

      steal = 2BB, re-steal = 2.5x.

      BB vs BU or CO: BE FE~53.5% >> Pot is 2bb + 1.5bb, investment is 4bb
      BBvsSB: BE FE ~57% >> Pot is 2bb + 1bb, investment is 4bb


      Even though I've never tried this, I think in BBvsSB situations we can try re-stealing to 2x rather than 2.5x depending on our hand/opponent.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      It is true that we don't need much more than 50% equity, but I think we can hardly get this, since not only will opponent push a lot, he also gets amazing odds to call with any playable hand in position.

      He needs to pay 3,5 for a 7.5 pot so he needs just 32% equity to call profitably and he should get those with most of his steal hands, as he shouldn't have problems winning many pots with a continuation bet. Also he won't be loosin many big pots in position.

      In SB vs BB the opposite is true, as this time we hav position and can call profitably with many weaker holdings and reevaluate on flop. If we mix that with some monsters played this way it becomes very profitable.

      Anyways a very nice discussion, this is the area I have the most problems with SSS (the steals/resteals), as variance is very high with all this moves and mistakes are very costly, especially again very agressive opponents.
    • RockEye
      RockEye
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2008 Posts: 416
      Isn't it better to push all in right away to a 3BB steal and create more FE then, to raise 2.5x and then fold to a push or call it?
      I seem to expirience that my 2-2.5x raise is called far too often with worse hands, which hit the flop and then get me into difficult postflop decisions.

      And i agree with RahXephon1 that variance is very high with SSS steals and resteals if you don't use it right, in the right moment, against the right player.
      As a matter of fact steals and resteals are my personal money drain. Everything i win playing solid SSS i loose when stealing and restealing as i can't fold my hand.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by RahXephon1
      It is true that we don't need much more than 50% equity, but I think we can hardly get this, since not only will opponent push a lot, he also gets amazing odds to call with any playable hand in position.

      He needs to pay 3,5 for a 7.5 pot so he needs just 32% equity to call profitably and he should get those with most of his steal hands, as he shouldn't have problems winning many pots with a continuation bet. Also he won't be loosin many big pots in position.
      When it comes to bluff re-stealing I believe it is a move we should only use against very aggressive stealers (50%+ range). With such a range they simply can't call you that often, even if get 2:1 odds and are IP. Against such opponent, if we keep a tight image we can definitely get 60%+ FE imo. Of course it is essential we have a tight image, otherwise our FE goes down the drain.

      Originally posted by RockEye
      Isn't it better to push all in right away to a 3BB steal and create more FE then, to raise 2.5x and then fold to a push or call it?
      With a regular stack I prefer pushing to a 3bb steal also. If the opponent is too loose, you can sometimes loosen up and push suited connectors, but there is no way you can push with total trash as in 2.5x bluff resteals.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by xarry2
      "... i got a problem with steal situations. when players steal with 2,5bb
      and i resteal according to the resteal chart and they only call then with a tight range i think i loose money in the long term."


      This could also simply be how you run. The difference between the profitability of shoving over 2.5BB or 3BB LP OR's with a 20BB stack is pretty small if we assume that villain knows how to play. Eg. BU raises "top 30%",SB folds we shove 20% (unexploitable) and BU calls optimally then we profit $3.84 versus a 2.5BB OR and $4 versus a $3 OR. Stakes NL1000, 5%rake with$3 cap. ie. about 1/60th of a BB.

      If you suspect that villain is calling too tight then you should obviously loosen up a bit providing you don't wear your FE down too much. I unfortunately don't know the charts to which you refer. I personally calculate an equilibrium strategy for various scenarios and adjust my play relative to how I think that villain deviates from "perfect play" himself.



      Originally posted by xarry2
      "
      is it maybe possible to make a small 3bet like 8bb and fold to a push? i discussed this with jaro and hes also not sure"


      I haven't done the numbers for such scenarios but there is one fact that is worth bearing in mind: the value of being able to make the final-bluff. That is to say when we resteal with an AI shove villain is no longer able to play a mixed strategy of bluffs and valuebets. Conversely, should we make a small 3bet then we open ourselves up to the possibility of being bluffed/valuetowned.

      I would imagine therefore versus a perfectly playing opponent our stategy of smallish 3bets is likely to be slightly less profitable than simply shoving AI as a resteal (with 20BB's or so). Whether a "small 3bet" resteal-strategy is viable depends very much on how players react to it since the commitment ranges for thieving-villain is not necessarily too close in both restealing scenarios. Ie. it is likely that villain will make more mistakes when confronted with the new strategy.

      I don't have time to do the calculations right now but I probably will do in the near future. With this in mind if perhaps in the meantime some more experienced players might like to suggest how villain might react when confronted with a smallish-3bet then I'd be happy to run the numbers when I get the chance.
    • RahXephon1
      RahXephon1
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 972
      Very insightfull post Nunki, will surely go over some of those calculations when I return home.