Outs and pot-odds.

    • Djens
      Djens
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.02.2008 Posts: 7
      Hey all, I recently signed up and are doing ok grinding with sss. I'm trying to study the bss at the moment and a question has arose. I've read the article in the strategy section and I'll quote from it. "The probability of hitting one of the players outs with the next community card is around 2% * number of outs + 2%."

      I wonder if it would be at least somewhat useful calculating odds in the following manner. Number of outs*2%+2%=Outs probability. If that probability% is > the % of the villains bet in regards to the pot size , does that call for a call?

      Thanks in advance and sorry if I'm unclear but English is not my native language.
  • 8 replies
    • louc
      louc
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2007 Posts: 42
      If
      > the % of the villains bet in regards to the pot size

      means villains bet/ pot size than the formula is correct if pot size is size of the pot after you call villains bet.

      Let's say you have 8 outs ~18% to improve with the next community card. Size of the pot is $100 and Villain bets $20. If you call the pot size would be $140 so you can call profitably because 18% > 20/140 ~14%.

      Hope it helps!
    • Djens
      Djens
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.02.2008 Posts: 7
      Yes thank you, It does make sense. I've tried to get my head around this for quite some time. I ran the numbers, not after my call, but only on his raise in relation to the pot and I always got quite high numbers. Your post sure cleared things up. Thanks.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      louc is actually wrong. The pot odds in his example are 20/120 = 1:6

      I don`t see why do you need to calculate equity, just use odds/pot odds.
    • louc
      louc
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2007 Posts: 42
      Pot odds are indeed 1:6 (or 6:1 against) but that's not equal to 1/6 =~ 0,17.

      When you get pot odds of 6:1 you can loose 6 times and win just one and you'd breakeven. You need to win 1 in 7 (not 1 in 6!!!) to breakeven. So odds of 1:6 equals to 1/7 and this is 20/140 not 20/120.
    • matkov
      matkov
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.11.2007 Posts: 202
      Just one question. If you get a Flush draw on the flop (Two hearts on a flop and you have to hearts in hands) you have 9 outs, that is 36% of hitting until the end of the hand right? (9outs X 4 ) That is aproximetly 2 : 1 shot (you hit flush in one in three cases).

      On the flop, opponent bets the pot, let's say pot is 50 $ and he raises another 50$. You're pot odds to call are 2:1. But it is not right to call because there is only a 18 % chance on hitting it on the turn( That is 4.5 : 1 ratio.), and you don't know what he will do on the turn, maybe checked, or raise. Am I calculating this right, or completly wrong ?:tongue:
    • louc
      louc
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2007 Posts: 42
      You're calculating it completly right :D

      Pot odds alone doesn't warrant a call but implied odds might. If you believe that you can extract some more $$$ (in your example it's $125 more: 1*$100 - 4.5*$50 = -$125) from opponent if another heart hits on turn then you can call. The other thing (besides extracting some more money) you should consider is that the hand you are drawing to will certainly beat your opponents hand.
    • matkov
      matkov
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.11.2007 Posts: 202
      okay thanks for your fast answer. Where do we put equity in all of this. About pot odds I've read a couple of things, but of Equity I don't know anything. I just keep hearing about it. Aren't pot odds alone a good way to determine if it's worthy to call or not. I mean, Equity stuff seems too complicated (for me:D ). Can someone please explain it, and show it on an example ? Thank you
    • louc
      louc
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2007 Posts: 42
      It's all explained here

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/glossary/Equity

      Aren't pot odds alone a good way to determine if it's worthy to call or not.


      Yes they are (implied odds are better though, especially in no limit games) but by all means they shouldn't be the only one.