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[NL2-NL10] KK nl5

    • kunaguero5
      Joined: 09.01.2011 Posts: 1,050
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($4.88)
      BB ($2.53)
      UTG ($4.65)
      UTG+1 ($5.17)
      CO ($5)
      Hero ($5.11)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: K:spade:

      UTG calls $0.05, UTG+1 raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.35

      FLOP ($1.12) 4:heart: T:club: 5:diamond:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+1 calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.72) 4:heart: T:club: 5:diamond: J:spade:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.85, UTG+1 folds

      52 hands
      32/27/18/19/0.6/33 VPIP/PFR/3bet/AFq/AF/WTSD

      turn it is bet/call? and call push everytime on river?
  • 2 replies
    • anhvusa
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 115
      IMP, I think it's quite obvious to Cbet with seemed-loose passive player with a good board like this for some reasons:

      - You have position on him.
      - You've got a strong made hand with a good community cards to Cbet.
      - On Turn, You can consider to Bet/Call if he raise because you've got quite good Equity in this case:

      Board: 4:heart: T:club: 5:diamond:  J:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    87.80%  87.80%   0.00% { KhKs }
      UTG+1  12.20%  12.20%   0.00% { ATs+, KTs+, 87s, 76s, ATo+, KTo+ }

      - On River? In case he call your bet on Turn, it depends on the river card which could give him a set or something that could beat your KK, but it seems quite tough for him. I should bet for value in this case with a medium size.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello kunaguero5,

      Well, the turn would be pretty marginal for us if he really comes over the top and Check/Raises against us. The problem is that Tx wouldn't play that aggressively ever there which anhvusa put into the range, also we can't be sure that he is playing draws that aggressively either. He didn't put any made hand even into the range. As you see the guy is very passive for that given reason I'd rather say he would have there strong made hand than just some semi-bluff. Although the question is if we can get away, we would have ~$2 behind us which is ~50% of our stack. Lets take a look another analyze:

      But rather the question is if there is any reason even to bet the turn while we are in 3bet pot. He will anyways have hard time to Call with weaker PPs like 88, 99 or even Tx. Rather just Check behind while there ain't that many draws and get value on river from those weaker hands.

      For this conclusion we see that if we do bet the turn for value which means we planning to bet 3streets for value means that we kinda commit ourselves and have to go broke with your plan.

      Best Regards.