[NL2-NL10] AA on drawy board vs utg SH

    • Wacko118
      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) IPoker
      SB ($9.40)
      BB ($8.77)
      UTG ($12.66)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      Hero ($12.78)
      BTN ($14.17)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.60

      FLOP ($1.95) Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.70, UTG raises to $5.10, Hero raises to $11.88 (AI), UTG calls $6.66 (AI)

      he is 25/22/2.3

      I feel he could be raising flush draws combo draws or sets or KK. should i of just given up on this board?
  • 2 replies
    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      I am also likely to shove on this spot especially in MSS.

      ボード: 5dQsJs
      equity win draw
      MP2 38.42% 36.33% 2.09% { AdAh }
      CO 61.58% 59.48% 2.09% { JJ+, 55, AsKs, KsQs, QsJs, QJo }

      Because of his not high PFR and aggression says that on this spot you haven't
      enough odds to shove. you only have 10.06:25.32=40%odds.

      Hmm, it's my first serious evaluate which contains equilab.

      How about coach?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Wacko118,

      Preflop: Against those small 3xBB raises I do like to raise bigger 4x his raise and not give him good set mining odds.
      Postflop: Well, what do you think such a tight player may Call you with. His UTG range may mostly consist of some stronger range. I doubt that the guy would Call with a lot worse hands. Might even fold hands like AQ while being OOP. Also KK he would most likely just 4bet and get it in while being OOP. So I would be towards this range:

      Board: Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    85.37%  85.32%   0.05% { QQ-JJ, 55, AsKs }
      UTG+1  14.63%  14.59%   0.05% { AdAh }

      Which says that we don't have that good equity and is rather a Bet/Fold for me. Doubt that he would even overplay his TP hand like AQ this way unless he is some very loose-spewy opponent.

      Lets take a look with AQs:

      Board: Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    78.46%  78.35%   0.11% { QQ-JJ, 55, AQs, AsKs }
      UTG+1  21.54%  21.42%   0.11% { AdAh }

      Now lets take a look with AQo:

      Board: Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.72%  57.40%   0.32% { QQ-JJ, 55, AQs, AsKs, AQo }
      UTG+1  42.28%  41.96%   0.32% { AdAh }

      And as you see even if we add AQo into his range even then the equity ain't gonna be very good. Since we need ourselves ~43% equity here which includes rake. Without rake it would be even higher. Which tells us that at the best we might get a break-even Call here. So Bet/Fold is my line.

      JJ+, 55, AsKs, KsQs, QsJs, QJo

      He can't have those hands as QsXs or QsJs since they are already on board. :D

      Best Regards.