This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] AA on drawy board vs utg SH

    • Wacko118
      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) IPoker
      SB ($9.40)
      BB ($8.77)
      UTG ($12.66)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      Hero ($12.78)
      BTN ($14.17)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.60

      FLOP ($1.95) Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.70, UTG raises to $5.10, Hero raises to $11.88 (AI), UTG calls $6.66 (AI)

      he is 25/22/2.3

      I feel he could be raising flush draws combo draws or sets or KK. should i of just given up on this board?
  • 2 replies
    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      I am also likely to shove on this spot especially in MSS.
      ボード: 5dQsJs
      equity win draw
      MP2 38.42% 36.33% 2.09% { AdAh }
      CO 61.58% 59.48% 2.09% { JJ+, 55, AsKs, KsQs, QsJs, QJo }

      Because of his not high PFR and aggression says that on this spot you haven't
      enough odds to shove. you only have 10.06:25.32=40%odds.

      Hmm, it's my first serious evaluate which contains equilab.

      How about coach?
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Wacko118,

      Preflop: Against those small 3xBB raises I do like to raise bigger 4x his raise and not give him good set mining odds.
      Postflop: Well, what do you think such a tight player may Call you with. His UTG range may mostly consist of some stronger range. I doubt that the guy would Call with a lot worse hands. Might even fold hands like AQ while being OOP. Also KK he would most likely just 4bet and get it in while being OOP. So I would be towards this range:

      Board: Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    85.37%  85.32%   0.05% { QQ-JJ, 55, AsKs }
      UTG+1  14.63%  14.59%   0.05% { AdAh }

      Which says that we don't have that good equity and is rather a Bet/Fold for me. Doubt that he would even overplay his TP hand like AQ this way unless he is some very loose-spewy opponent.

      Lets take a look with AQs:

      Board: Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    78.46%  78.35%   0.11% { QQ-JJ, 55, AQs, AsKs }
      UTG+1  21.54%  21.42%   0.11% { AdAh }

      Now lets take a look with AQo:

      Board: Q:spade: J:spade: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    57.72%  57.40%   0.32% { QQ-JJ, 55, AQs, AsKs, AQo }
      UTG+1  42.28%  41.96%   0.32% { AdAh }

      And as you see even if we add AQo into his range even then the equity ain't gonna be very good. Since we need ourselves ~43% equity here which includes rake. Without rake it would be even higher. Which tells us that at the best we might get a break-even Call here. So Bet/Fold is my line.

      JJ+, 55, AsKs, KsQs, QsJs, QJo

      He can't have those hands as QsXs or QsJs since they are already on board. :D

      Best Regards.