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[NL2-NL10] flush draw with overcards and gutter vs tight aggressive opp

    • Wacko118
      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) IPoker
      Hero ($10.05)
      BB ($11.63)
      UTG ($15.83)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      CO ($6.93)
      BTN ($4.82)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: 9:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.60) 7:heart: 4:diamond: J:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50

      TURN ($1.60) 7:heart: 4:diamond: J:diamond: 8:heart:

      Hero bets $1.20, BB raises to $2.80, Hero raises to $9.25 (AI), BB calls $6.45

      villain is 15/9/1.3 but only over 89 hand sample

      We have a bit of history. on a previous hand i had the same nut flush draw and a gutter and he did exactly the same thing but a little bigger. I timed out and folded.
      Looking at it, i cant fold i just have too many outs and its only 1.40 to win $5.60. But i feel he cant call a lot here and i dont really think he always has much. Especially since a set is raising on that flop and im ahead of all diamond draws. so i feel he should fold enough of the time?
  • 4 replies
    • yeahyoung0312
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 340
      IMO just call the turn as you might had enough implied odds there with 9 outs ($1.6 to win $13.65). But that's assuming villain can still call AI push when a diamond falls, which might not happen.

      Jamming the turn is kind of overplaying the hand. You were clearly behind at that spot and the villain seems want to play for stack there.
    • Wacko118
      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      thing is though he almost never has a set here. why would he not bet the flop with a set as it is so draw heavy. And things like 10s prob are raising preflop.

      and i dont see how he can call when i jam the turn unless he has 910s but thats about it i can see he him calling with. Especially since my range looks super strong when i jam the turn
    • sausage646
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      you have to call 1.6 to win 7.2 - that's 22,22%
      Ad9d - 22.73%
      JJ,77,44 (in worst case if he did slow played) - 77.27 %
      make the call, don't raise.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Wacko118,

      Well, I don't really understand why don't you Call the turn if he is giving you such perfect odds? I doubt that you will have much fold equity even there, he guy doesn't seem to be that aggressive and with just some one hand sample earlier it's not great to make expectations.

      Best Regards.