[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching Homework #2 - 04.10.11

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Everyone,

      as some of you may have heard that we have homeworks in our Hand Evaluation Coachings as well. Here is the 2nd homework. But it doesn't mean that other can't evaluate the hand, it will stay open for everyone to discuss.

      Whoever is active in the homeworks gets a free database analyze as you may have heard in the Hand Evaluation Coaching. So waiting for your opinions, here is the hand from the coaching 04.10.11:

      Originally posted by chocular77
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $25
      BU:
      $14,05

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:club: , K:club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0,75, CO folds, BU calls $0,75, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1,90) J:spade: , 7:spade: , 5:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1,2, BU calls $1,20.

      Turn: ($4,30) K:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BU calls $3,00.

      River: ($10,30) Q:spade: (2 players)
      Hero...?

      If i bet i have to call the rest of his stack. If i check and he goes allin i have to guess.
  • 5 replies
    • yomatiyo
      yomatiyo
      Black
      Joined: 17.02.2010 Posts: 9,637
      Hi, I will try like in the coaching.

      Preflop we could think about raising 4x, cause the fish is in BU and we want a big pot against him whit our monster. But ok, is not a mistake raising to 3x. But I will definitivly raise 4x and play against him (we can also this way avoid other player, and try to maxim value against the fish).

      In the flop, I see a clear ch/f. Why? this is my thoughts:

      * We dont really have FE against him in the flop. He is a 43vpip and a std wtsd but high for his weak range. What does mean? that we cant make him fold just beting flop, and we will have to bet flop and turn, and posibly river. And oop is not the bets movement in this spot.

      Why is that? cause of his "calling range".

      * His calling range consist in a loooot of hand that will allways continue untill the river, like any Jx, o all the hands like Fd :spade: or 68 7x8 :spade: 5x6 :spade: 69 46 63s 89 9T A5 A7 TT 99 88. And we cant discount the JJ (he is so pasive) 77 and 55 and 57.
      Anyway, this means that we are only punting money whit no real equity (cause his draws has good equity against our OC), and our OC could not be clear (against anydraw or A7 A5 K7s K5s). So we will enter in a really marginal spot against a MS (who will feel commited in the river whit Jx allways), beting oop, and whitout knowing really how to play the hand.

      Just ch/f and wait for other more profitable spot.



      Anyway, as played, I will bet a litle bit bigger in turn, like 3.4usd, cause any FD or oesd or GS or Jx will not fold (that is his calling range a lot of times), so we have a lot of value.
      River is aufull and thin... cause a lot of doubles will beat us and also the flush. And since he has a 25% wtsd, he may be the kind of fish that will fold a Jx now, so I am not so jure about how much value do we have.

      Since he is a fish and will not bluff here almost never, there is no missed draws, and he will never bet a Kx or Jx, I will just ch/f. he may also not bet JQ for example, cause of the flush is scary for him, so another point for checking/folding.


      I think that is all I have to say =P
    • noel50
      noel50
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.10.2009 Posts: 105
      Will the way I would have played the hand I would in 90% of the time checked on the flop the board is too wet (unless I think I can get the player to fold) and fold to a bet . As played bet flop ok on turn hit k and bet ok call from bu (alarm bells going off showing strength when k hit) we are behind to jj 77 55 kj 75s ahead flush draw level ak .river flush is there kq is there straight is there fold the hand if you bet must be all in the bu stack is too small to fold as we have approx 5 d in already has 10 d left
    • tofu22
      tofu22
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 659
      Flop: there are no stats that would show how he reacts on the flop, but assuming from his success rate of W$SD and decent WTS, he doesn't exactly call with just anything or better he knows how to fold. So i would quite confidently cbet.

      Since he called i would assume a range of TP two pair JJ 77 55 + flush draw and straight draw.

      river: since he's so psv i don't think a block bet or any bet is necessary, if he bets he most likely has something, so ch/f.
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Hi since it's my hand i should also write something about it.

      Stats:
      F2CB 47
      3B 2
      Coldcall2B 37 avg(i know it doesn't tell much but i need it for the equilab)
      No notes against this player so far


      I agree that a cbet OOP on such a board is questionable and normally i don't do it often.
      But for a 43/9 player on my limit a WTS of 25 + F2CB 47 is rather low so i tried it. (Yeah there are looser callers with 40/10 which are good customers)

      Sure his range can connect with this board well and there are a lot of cards which could call.
      But then again in this huge range there are also ALOT of cards which can't call.

      Lets look at the flop with the equilab.
      I assume that he would 3B with KK+,AK (~2%) and he would call about with 40% of his other hands.
      I know i have a small samplesize for a stat like CC2B but he is a loose player and got the button so i think this is all reasonable.
      If we put in the 40 range and exclude the KK+,AK we get a ~37% range which matches his CC2B.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 52.06% 51.76% 0.30% AcKc
      MP3 47.94% 47.64% 0.30% QQ-44, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+

      This doesn't tell us much, but now we have to look at the distribution:

      If we add together Trips(2,3%), 2P(0,8%),OverP(1,5), TP(16,6), 2ndPair(4,5), Pairabove 3rdPair(7,6%), OESD/DBB(1%), fdraw(6,8%) and even GSdraw ( 9,1%)
      he hits this Board with 48,36% (more than i thought, but not as many strdraws than expected).
      I think he can fold 3rdP or worse. So he folds about 52% of the time.

      Know we look how many FE we need if we run a full bluff: 1,2 / (1,2+1,9) = 0,38
      which isn't enough but we still got Overcards and if we take his callingrange into the equilab we see that we also got still ~30 equity.


      This is all still realistic.
      We could change the Values in our favour still.
      If we use a 43 range (KK+,AK) and exclude half of his "one pair,middlepair, second or worse" (-3,55%) and exclude the GSdraws (-8,5) his callingrange would be about 35,78 which is alot lower (~64% FE) + ~25 equity against the new callingrange (lower because his range is stronger).

      So it is not always wrong to make a cbet here. If we assume that he can fold something weaker than 2nd Pair, Gutshots and Backdoors. And his F2CB and WTS tells us he can fold.


      Turn i think a 70% PSB seems just fine.

      River i played it wrong and bet out, but i see now that such an passive player would check behind weaker hands and only call/raise with stronger hands.

      Edit: if i misscalculated something just point it out, i haven't done this all to
      often.

      Ok, did i make a mistake by calculating the FE? Because it would already be enough. Somebody help me here.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Everyone,

      Now the Evaluation from our side. :)

      Preflop: Well, for the given reason that's it's a FR and not that high limit I would still use 4xBB open-raise. Against those loose opponents in long run we want to extract more value.
      Flop: I don't like that much your CBet at all here. The guy seems to be kinda loose so we will rarely see any folds here on such a board. No pairs/draws will fold and also he will have even floats in his range. For that given reason I'd just Check/Fold it right here.

      As played
      Turn: As we hit our miracle card then definitely we have to protect our hand and at the same time get value from worse.
      River: Well, most of the hands did complete here, like FD/QJ/KQ is possible. For that reason there is not much value anyways from worse hands here. I'd consider Check/Folding since I doubt he is ever betting with worse here. I'd be happy to see free showdown.

      Best Regards.