Odds and Outs Question

    • brooksjohn
      brooksjohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.08.2010 Posts: 144
      I have a question, that I have trouble explaining, regarding the Odds and Outs chart so I have framed my question by preparing an example below.

      Can someone confirm whether or not I have interpreted this correctly. I ask because it seems that in these cases I will call a lot of flop bets but fold a lot of turns bets and this can't be profitable.


      I have T:heart: 9:heart: in BU - blinds are $0.5/$1 (easy to calculate)
      EP Limp, MP Limp, I call, SB calls, BB checks, all others fold
      Pot = $5
      Flop 7:diamond: 8:club: 3:spade:
      SB checks, BB bets $3, EP folds, MP calls $3
      Pot will be $14 if I call, I need to pay $3 to stay in so pot odds are 14:3 or 4.66:1.
      The Odds chart states that with 2 cards to come the odds against my draw hitting is 2:1 so I call the $3.
      SB folds so pot is $14.
      Turn is 2:heart:
      BB bets $7, MP calls
      Pot will be $28 if I call, cost to stay in is $7 so pot odds are 28:7 or 4:1.

      Ignoring implied odds I fold because the odds against are 5:1 with one card to come - is this correct?
  • 8 replies
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 372
      Yes.

      Your pot odds are 4:1 = 25%

      (To fastly calculate your approximate odds, you just take your outs and multiplie it with:
      - either x4 if on the flop
      - or x2 if on the turn)

      Your odds are therefore 8 (outs for OESD) x2 (turn) = 16%

      Though, if you belive a T or a 9 is also a live odd and would mean you'd won the pot, you would then have:

      8 (OESD) + 6 (3 tens, 3 nines) = 14 outs x2 (turn) = 28%, and would therefore be able to call the turn bet. But you have to have certain reads on your opponent to belive 9 or a T would also do the trick.
    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      It's not that simple. In your case your call on the flop where you have 2:1 against your oesd includes the river. So your calculation would be right if with that flop call you would see the turn and the river (for exmpl your opps both check the turn or you go all in on the flop). If that's not the case then you must realize you have either odds 16% and try to hit on the turn, or calculate implied odds including your opps bets on the turn to see if it would be profitable to call both streets...
    • brooksjohn
      brooksjohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.08.2010 Posts: 144
      Thanks for your response. So, basically, unless I am sure that my opponents will check both turn and river (not likely) or I am shoving the flop, the 2:1 odds should be ignored and the turn and river treated as separate 5:1 situations.
    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      That's not completly true. I think in the whole situation you're completly forgetting about fold equity. If NL poker would be all about math I would probably earn much more from it. You have to put your opps on a range. If you just call to hit your oesd than it's a fishy play. Since BB just checked preflop and then led out it's standard he has an 8 and probably weak 8, he could have 78 or 83 but I dont think he would then lead this flop from BB, check raise would be standard line then. Since you have two overs with oesd that means you have more than 50% equity to hit in these spots. With a slight chance your opponent is on a 69 or 56 or he led out with pair of 7s you have small portion of fold equity also. So my line against an unknown would be to raise the flop, first to get more information about BB hand, and second to get rid of anyone else involved. Now, you didnt write stack sizes which is crucial in calculating implied odds. For example, on the turn if you think you need to hit your straight in order to win you really have 16% of equity, but since your hand will be pretty well desquised I think there's more to win on the river. If you have a read on your opp he's calling any river than you need much less than 28:7. And in this spot I think T or 9 would be good quite often also. Problem with calling down in these spots is that you dont have any info about your opps hand and you're just relying on making your hand. What if he's leading the flop with 69 for example. That's a hand against your line is awful. I think it's crucial first to know your opps exact range and only then can you calculate equity against that range.
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      cool discussion going on in here. it is good to clarify concepts if you are not sure about them.

      in real game analysis, there are so many more factors that need to be considered, like ii40747 has mentioned.

      hmm but i believe the original question was just strictly about pot odds and you gave a hypothetical example just to illustrate the point, right? in this case, i think things have been adequately explained. did you get it now? any more problems, just shout.

      thanks to the lovely members for participating here. :f_love:


      smiles,
      wendy
    • brooksjohn
      brooksjohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.08.2010 Posts: 144
      I get it now and would like to thank ii40747 for the comprehensive and informative replies.
    • ii40747
      ii40747
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2009 Posts: 54
      Any time m8 ;) GL at the tables !
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      Originally posted by brooksjohn
      I get it now and would like to thank ii40747 for the comprehensive and informative replies.
      + 1

      thank you for taking the time to post ii40747, you're so awesome! :f_love: