Stats question.

    • fruktpuff
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 3,982
      So here's a thing I'm somewhat struggling with,

      When in PLO can we really begin trusting situational stats?
      I mean in NLHE, it's a piece of piss gathering up hands and get 3b/ft3b/4b/ft4b samples, but with not being able to play nearly as many tables(personally atleast), we're getting far smaller samples from the regs if we end up with them.

      I mean, if we 4 table PLO, but can 8+ table NLHE easily, our samples will grow far far slower, and with 4bets happening far more often in PLO aswell, how big does the sample need to be before we can even begin basing decisions off it properly?
  • 2 replies
    • Nunki
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      I am afraid that there are no easy answers to your question(s) unless you understand about hypothesis tests regarding a population proportion.

      You can plug in three numbers to an online calculator which will do the math (the easy bit) but will then leave you the more difficult task of interpretting the results.

      You need to quantify the following:

      1) The sample size. eg. villain had 100 4bet opportunities

      2)The proportion. eg. If villain 4bet 17 times then proportion=17/100=0.17

      3)The type I (or alpha) error which is a measure of how critical your stats based decision is likely to be. Eg. Contemplating a loosish PF call in the BU versus a suspected weak-passive fish will have a different alpha no. than when you face a 4bet PF in NLHE versus a player with an "unclear" 4 betting range where you could be making a huge mistake.

      The short answer is therfore: "It depends."
    • Kyyberi
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      You can't make any big assumptions normally just from the stat. As 2% 4bet doesn't mean it's top 2%. This is something that some holdem players don't understand.

      In holdem, if your 4bet is 2%, it's usually the top 2%. But in PLO it can be aces, or it can be premium rundowns. It all depends on stack sizes and opponents.

      And if you have 500 hands from the opponent, he might have under 20 chances to 4bet. Especially in micros, where 3ber are less common than in midstakes.

      I would say that notes is your best friend. When ever opponent 3bets or 4bets and it goes to showdown, take a note of it. Soon you will have a good idea about his hand ranges.