[NL20-NL50] NL25 JJ vs shortstack 4bet

    • PickoCro
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 83
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J.
      3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.65, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.65, BU folds, SB calls $0.55, Hero raises to $3.69, MP2 raises to $10.83, 2 folds, Hero calls $7.14.

      Flop: ($22.96) 7, T, 8 (2 players)

      Turn: ($22.96) K (2 players)

      River: ($22.96) 3 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $22.96.

      Results follow:

      MP2 shows a pair of aces(Ah Ad).
      Hero shows a pair of jacks(Jd Jh).

      MP2 wins with a pair of aces(Ah Ad).

      So this is the type of situation where i think i loose most of my money... Some standard semi-tight shortstack opens the pot gets a few callers and i get jj in the bb. Now i don t want to flat and see a flop oop with jacks vs 3 players so i 3bet but if the shortstack pushes i am never ahead but i feel like i have to call... I put him on qq+ aks, ako, witch i am a 2:3 dog against and i get 2:1 on my money so this should be +ev but they never seem to have ak it s always aa kk and sometimes qq. If he was a standard playing full stack opponent and 4bet i snap fold obviously... The same can be applied to me having something like 1010 or aq... So what should i do pokerstrategy?
  • 1 reply
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Well if you assume they shove QQ+,AK and they never showed up with AK then there are 3 possibilities:
      a) You caught some variance - unlikely if you played 20k+ hands.
      b) Selective memory.
      c) They actually don't shove AK.

      Which one of those is actually true is hard/impossible to say without having actual data.
      So I suggest you open up HM/PT/Elephant and filter for situations where you were all in preflop and the final pot was smaller than ~70BB.
      Then you'll get a list of all the hands where you were in this spot and if there are 20 in which they showed up with QQ+ and 2 where they had AK you have to adjust your assumptions and 3b/fold JJ in this spot.

      Generally however, I think once you 3bet vs them folding is too weak because I assume they are actually getting it in with AK - again, this can easily be wrong depending on the limit and the site you're playing on.

      Also you should look at their openingrange in MP2 - if it's very tight you should consider not 3betting JJ in the first place.