[NL20-NL50] NL25 KQs river decision vs aggro donk

    • PickoCro
      Joined: 14.04.2009 Posts: 83
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, K.
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.6) 7, 6, 4 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.00, BB calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.6) 5 (2 players)
      BB bets $2.56, Hero calls $2.56.

      River: ($8.72) 8 (2 players)
      BB raises to $8.19(All-In), Hero calls $8.19.

      Final Pot: $25.1.

      Results follow:

      BB shows a straight, nine high(Kc 9s).
      Hero shows a straight, eight high(Qd Kd).

      BB wins with a straight, nine high(Kc 9s).

      Ok so this guy was playing almost every hand (54/20 over 100 hands) and was bluffing all the time, he d donkbet flop turn river with air and stupid stuff like that all the time (his AF was 78)... So my question is i know i shouldn t be calling the river only to chop, but can i really fold against this type of opponent?
  • 1 reply
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      He needs to be bluffing 8.19 / (8.19 + ( 8.72 / 2 ) ) = 0.656 = 65.6% of the time to make this a breakeven-call.

      Imo there are only few nines in his range, it's much more likely he's turning some 1pair or 2pair hand into a bluff or he was bluffing in the first place, so as played I'd call the river.

      But I think I'm not even getting in this situation - on the turn you have a lot of equity but no SD-value, so I think shoving the turn yourself is better than calling.

      Generally against such overaggro players the way to counter them is simple:
      - SD-value -> play passive, i.e. call to induce
      - Equity but no SD-value -> play aggressive, i.e. raise either flop or turn
      - neither equity not SD-value -> fold!