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HU hyper turbo SNG

    • bonebt
      Joined: 07.11.2009 Posts: 452
      what should be expected roi at HU hyperturbo sng on stars?
      what BM should be used, how many BI?
      how many of this HU hyper turbo SNG one should play to have ~ clue of his roi?
  • 1 reply
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The bankroll you need depends on your ROI. A lower ROI means you will see larger downswings, and need a larger bankroll to have the same level of safety as another player with a higher ROI.

      A general rule is

      Bankroll = comfort * standard deviation^2 / win rate

      Comfort is a value which depends on your personal risk tolerance and ability/willingness to move down when you have a bad streak. A comfort level of 2 is aggressive, while a comfort level of 4 is conservative.

      Standard deviation in a STT mainly depends on the prize structure, not the speed or your playing style. In a HU tournament the standard deviation is about 0.95-1 buy-in.

      Let's suppose you have an ROI of 4%, a standard deviation of 1 buy-in, and you use a target comfort level of 3. Then your target bankroll is 3 * 1 / 0.04 = 75 buy-ins. If your bankroll drops to 74 buy-ins, that doesn't mean you have to stop, but usually it should be viewed as an expense to play with under 1/2 of your target bankroll.

      Of course, you don't know your ROI exactly. You keep updating your estimate for your ROI as you play more. A rough 95% confidence interval for your ROI after n tournaments is your observed ROI +- 200%/Squareroot(n). That doesn't get as narrow as you need until the number of tournaments is huge. After 400 tournaments, it would be +- 10%. If you have a program like HEM, the all-in luck adjustment should be very helpful. It might reduce the number of tournaments needed by a factor of 5. That 5 is just an educated guess.