[NL2-NL10] Nl10 Sh Jj

    • Sinnology
      Sinnology
      Global
      Joined: 10.08.2009 Posts: 994
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($26.82)
      BB ($2.09)
      UTG ($4.24)
      UTG+1 ($5.40)
      Hero ($10.41)
      BTN ($14.67)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: J:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $1.05, fold, fold, fold, UTG raises to $4.24 (AI), Hero calls $3.19

      FLOP ($8.63) Q:spade: 7:spade: K:diamond:

      TURN ($8.63) Q:spade: 7:spade: K:diamond: Q:heart:

      RIVER ($8.63) Q:spade: 7:spade: K:diamond: Q:heart: A:club:

      UTG shows K:club: K:spade:
      (Pre 81%, Flop 96.9%, Turn 100.0%)

      Hero shows J:club: J:diamond:
      (Pre 19%, Flop 3.1%, Turn 0.0%)

      UTG wins $8.20

      This guy is pretty TAG with huge AFF, which is 20 over 600 hands.
      vpio/pfr are 19/16.
      the question is can I ever fold this for remaining 29bbs?
      Hes shoving rane is 99+,AQ,AK , so basicly its a flip.
      What do you think ?
  • 3 replies
    • delanonunes
      delanonunes
      Gold
      Joined: 06.08.2011 Posts: 76
      Hi Sinnology, hope you dont mind me analysing your hand for my homework, i'm sure you'll be doing my hands soon enough lol :D

      Pre-flop: You played absolutely correctly off the bat in my opinion, but once the TAG with the tight range starts shoving you have to ask yourself whats he pushing with. As hard as it is to lay down Jacks after you've raised you'll be far better off in the long run as these tight players love to wait for premium hands before shoving, as soon as he pushed alarm bells should start going off in your head, you might be good up against AK, AQ or TT but would the TAG come over the top off you once you'd re-raised with these hands?

      It does seem like a flip to me, however i've started playing pocket Jacks as if they were 8's and i've avoided alot more close calls since then which was a big leak in my game :) However when you land Kings, Queens and Aces your entirely correct in going broke IMHO, but if the player stats tell me he's a Rock i might even throw away my Queens... ( i have a feeling i'm playing a bit scared at the mo though lol -keep running into monsters )

      good luck on the tables :D
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Sinnology,

      Well, if you go for 3bet then nope we ain't folding our hand. This should be also your plan if you go for a 3bet. :) Or another option if you don't want to play for the stacks then just Call and play it postflop.

      Best Regards.
    • Meemawuk
      Meemawuk
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2009 Posts: 758
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Sinnology,

      Well, if you go for 3bet then nope we ain't folding our hand. This should be also your plan if you go for a 3bet. :) Or another option if you don't want to play for the stacks then just Call and play it postflop.

      Best Regards.
      +1

      We have to think about our reason for 3-betting pre in this spot. If you're 3-betting for value (because you know he calls 3-bets light, or reshoves light) then its fine. Otherwise I wouldnt be 3-betting. I lean more towards not 3-betting with 'marginals' vs 4-bet shoves from unknowns. including JJ. I' rather 3-bet him with T8s from the button and not give myself the headache.

      If you evaluated his range correctly, then you can never fold.

      Board:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    50.18%  49.22%   0.96% { JdJc }
      UTG+1  49.82%  48.85%   0.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }




      I'm less inclined to think that you've evaluated his range correctly though I seem to evaluate ranges for unknowns a lot more conservatively than you unless they give me a specific reason not to. I'd put his range more like:


      Board:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    36.19%  35.98%   0.21% { JdJc }
      UTG+1  63.81%  63.60%   0.21% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }




      Interestingly, you're still getting the correct price vs that range so couldn't fold here either. I hate to find myself in these kinds of spots where I'm calling off short stacks with the correct equity whilst crushed or flipping, because I have made a marginal 3-bet.