[NL2-NL10] Close Decision, so how do I decide?

    • Scooney
      Joined: 14.08.2011 Posts: 104
      Known players:

      0.02/0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.105 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K:club: , J:diamond:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, CO folds, BU calls $0.16, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($0.38) J:spade: , 9:spade: , 4:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.28, BU calls $0.28.

      Turn: ($0.94) 2:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.72, BU calls $0.72.

      River: ($2.38) 3:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU raises $2.89 (All-In), Hero....

      I was fairly sure I'd c/c on the river here, but when he overbet shoves I'm left with a bit of a situation! I guess he's repping a set, but there are a few draws that have missed here. I ran his range (9%) in Poker Stove and 44 isn't even in it, and discounting that I worked out I had 55% equity against his range, needing 54% to call. Do you think I was right with this estimation or do I need to fold?

      I put his range on the river as JJ,99,AsKs,AsQs,AsTs,KsQs,KsTs.
  • 2 replies
    • Tombic
      Joined: 07.02.2011 Posts: 272
      I think decision is based on your reads here. Either you beated or he has air (busted draws). Against such nitty i'd fold. 9/8/0.6/110 looks scary here.
      And i disagree with his range also. I'd put him 44,TT+, AJ, AsKs, AsQs
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Scooney,

      Well, I doubt that you can do there much. Such a nit-passive player usually ain't capable of bluffing like this but rather ship for value. Good fold! And I wouldn't put that wide range on him, I mean if you are putting so many bluffs on him then why ain't ya Calling?

      Best Regards.