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[NL2-NL10] NL10 KQs

    • wnbMG
      Joined: 10.04.2011 Posts: 586
      vs. 37/1/2.8
      Right fold on river? maybe better to 3bet/shove on flop/turn?
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.01)
      BB ($5.98)
      Hero ($10.14)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      CO ($10.60)
      BTN ($2.16)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: K:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.90) 3:spade: 5:spade: K:heart:

      SB checks, BB bets $0.67, Hero calls $0.67, SB folds

      TURN ($2.24) 3:spade: 5:spade: K:heart: J:diamond:

      BB bets $1.68, Hero calls $1.68

      RIVER ($5.60) 3:spade: 5:spade: K:heart: J:diamond: 3:diamond:

      BB bets $3.33 (AI), Hero folds

      BB wins $5.23
  • 2 replies
    • yaxkukmian
      Joined: 24.12.2007 Posts: 2,020
      Preflop: I would raise pot size.

      Flop: He's playing with only half stack...let's do some calculations...

      his preflop range:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 55.80% 54.06% 1.74% { KsQs }
      BB 44.20% 42.46% 1.74% { 33+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }

      That's quite logical, but we should exclude the hands he raises with (QQ+, AKs), so our equity increases for 2-3%.

      On flop, he donks into us, so usually that means very polarized range - set or weak K. (sometimes some funky 2 pair, but I don't see this in this players range). I narrowed his donking range to this:

      Board: K:heart: 5:spade: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    68.51%  64.71%   3.80% { KsQs }
      BB     31.49%  27.69%   3.80% { 55, 33, KJs+, K5s, K3s, 53s, AsJs, AsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJo+, JTo, 53o }

      We're really way ahead of his range and I think there are few more hands in his donking range. I would raise to $2,10 and call a shove here.

      Turn: If we decide to only call this flop, this turn actually doesn't help us much. When he bets for the second time, he definitely represents strong hand.

      Board: K:heart: 5:spade: 3:spade:  J:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    53.01%  48.14%   4.87% { KsQs }
      BB     46.99%  42.12%   4.87% { 55, 33, KJs+, K5s, K3s, 53s, AsJs, AsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJo+, JTo, 53o }

      Against same range we have something more than a flip but I would rather give him this range:

      Board: K:heart: 5:spade: 3:spade:  J:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    36.67%  36.67%   0.00% { KsQs }
      BB     63.33%  63.33%   0.00% { 55, 33, KJs, K5s, K3s, 53s, AsJs, AsTs, JsTs, As4s, As2s, KJo, 53o }

      and now our best line would be to fold, since he invested so much money in the pot, we can expect him to bet-shove any river and we will gladly call him only with :spade: , K wouldn't help us much and nor would Q.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello wnbMG,

      Well, I doubt that you beat much on turn that's the problem. If he is donking into multiway pot then it's rarely a very weak hand. So therefore against his line you have to decide it directly. Either we are going to fold the turn or Calling also the river or even maybe shipping the turn, although I wouldn't while I'd keep the weaker hands in the play.

      The river just made him less likely even to have any hand as set.

      Best Regards.