Good player or bad player?

    • Stockky
      Stockky
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2008 Posts: 9,921
      Hi everybody,
      what would you think about a player with these statistics:

      Vpip: 44
      Pfr: 12
      3bet: 4
      Coldcall: 34
      Af: 1,7
      Ag%: 37,5
      Flop cbet: 99
      Wts: 37
      W$sd: 57

      He has a winrate of 3BB/100 after 20k hands at 1/2
      Just goodrunning?
  • 7 replies
    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      at 1usd/2usd or 1cent/2cent ?

      I think it is impossible for anybody to have a winrate at 1/2usd with these stats.

      At 1/2cent I think it's possible but not sustainable
    • Stockky
      Stockky
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2008 Posts: 9,921
      Yep, it's strange he has a consistent winrate with those statistics, i think he's goodrunning, after 20k hands it starts to be a big goodrun :f_mad:

      PS: i didn't choose the perfect title for the topic, better to talk about his winrate/goodrun :P
    • Dawnfall26
      Dawnfall26
      Black
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116
      This guy may be BE at most on 1/2 if his postflop skills are decent enough. From stats its obvious he is limping/coldcalling way too many pots, therefore he is not isolating enough and 3BB/100 is just him running extremely lucky.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      {deleted}

      I posted in wrong forum.
    • TiciBoy
      TiciBoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.01.2010 Posts: 1,235
      Originally posted by w34z3l
      Uhm....it's actually completely impossible to accurately state whether someone is a winning player from stats alone. So grats to the people who are apparently capable of this.

      To give one example - 99% flop cbet might seem high. But there is no indication of cbet size in these stats. It could be balanced between min-cbets and 2/3rds pot cbets, we just don't know. He might follow through with a perfectly balanced amount of double-barrels or flop 3bets. He might regularly play 200bb deep or some other factor we cannot deduce purely from stats.

      The only way to truly tell if someone is winning is to watch them play while preferably listening to their thought processes; and naturally, the accuracy of that evaluation would be dependant upon our own skill.

      Having said that, it is understandable if one assumes these stats are not representative of a great player; but in reality it is not possible to state this with any degree of certainty.
      All good points, but this is posted in fixed-limit section. ;)
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Originally posted by TiciBoy


      All good points, but this is posted in fixed-limit section. ;)
      Omg, I've done it again. Hopefully no-one minds if I delete that.

      I had fun anyway.
    • Boomer2k10
      Boomer2k10
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.09.2010 Posts: 2,551
      He's running hot for sure.

      He's got a Won at showdown near 60% seeing showdown 37% of the time.

      20k is not actually a massive sample size, it takes 130,000 hands for a standard 6-max TAG to know his winrate with 95% certainly to within 1BB/100 so 20k hands is absolutely no indicator of winrate.

      Is it possible you can breakeven or be a slight winning player at 1/2 with those stats? Possibly.

      However it's not as if he's a 70/0 fish, he has some hand selection, he has some basic post-flop stuff down (WTSD looks ok and C-Bet of close to 100% on flop is standard) he's just making some pre-flop mistakes.

      Maybe he overdefends his BB always

      Maybe he open-limps in early and is a bit of a nit of the button

      He's obviosuly making sizeable mistakes and would more than likely get butchered in a tough lineup but the average 1/2 table is not a tough lineup and if the players don't adapt to his ranges then he may very well be able to break even.

      But even with that said, yes he's running hot.