[NL20-NL50] SHNL25 QJs folding flush deep stack :(

    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($39.71)
      BB ($36.08)
      UTG ($25)
      CO ($25)
      BTN ($40.80)

      Dealt to Hero Q:spade: J:spade:

      fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, fold

      FLOP ($1.75) 8:spade: T:spade: 3:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.32, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN calls $3.18

      TURN ($10.75) 8:spade: T:spade: 3:heart: J:heart:

      Hero bets $7.70, BTN calls $7.70

      RIVER ($26.15) 8:spade: T:spade: 3:heart: J:heart: 3:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $27.85 (AI), Hero folds

      BTN wins $24.87


      villain 29/21 (1k hands)
      cbet 64%
      agg 36/27/24
      wts 30 <--- so his riverbet is like 90% nutz and 10% air? He wont call with air on turn. A set would most likely raised IMO.

      Another question: how do we play the turn? What if he raises?
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      you c/r big on the flop, bet big on the turn, make your hand on the river and then decide to c/f. That doesn´t make sense- if you think checking river would induce shove from worse hands, then check is fine, but I´d personally b/c there 16$.

      wts 30 <--- so his riverbet is like 90% nutz and 10% air?
      problem is that he would shove also for value worse flushes, so although he might not bluff there often you can´t c/f Q high flush.

      He wont call with air on turn. A set would most likely raised IMO
      - agree, that set would raised on the turn most likely and that would you most likely only loose to K or A high flushes.

      Another question: how do we play the turn? What if he raises?
      - imo you have too much equity with tp+gutshot+flushdraw to b/f turn, so you have to b/c, since you get too good odds
      Even against set you have 25% equity

      board: 8sTs3hJd
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      QsJs 25.00% 33 0
      TT 75.00% 99 0
      and I think he may sometimes also shove with his A or K high flushdraws and two pair hands that means you´re flipping against his range

      board: 8sTs3hJh
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      QsJs 44.67% 511 0
      TT, As*s, JT, 8Ts, 88, 33 55.33% 633 0
    • ragney
      ragney
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2010 Posts: 2,417
      Kaitz, can you explain me in detail how we ever can be more than 33% ahead?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think most sets would shove turn to protect their hand against draws, so that would leave us Axs combos and Kxs combos that beat out hand and then all the rest that we´re ahead of.
      Hands we don´t beat:
      On the bu I think he would open every Axs - A2s, A4s-A7s, A9s, AKs
      He would open most of the strong Kxs hands, but since we hold QJs, he can´t really have there too much combos- K9s, K7s, K6s, K5s

      Hands we beat:
      flushes: 45s, 56s, 57s, 79s
      straights: 79h, Q9 that isn´t too much combos, but if we add there also JT and overpairs that he might shove for value, since our river check would generally doesn´t make a lot of sense we also get JT, JJ-AA and I think he might also turn some made hands into bluffs, like Ah8h, AhTh or 99:

      board: 8sTsJh3h3s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      QsJs 80.70% 46 0
      As2s, As4s-As7s, As9s, AsKs, Ks9s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks6s, 4s5s, 5s6s, 5s7s, 7s9s, 7h9h, Q9, JT, JJ-AA, Ah8h, AhTh, 99 19.30% 11 0

      I think 80% is too optimistic, but I think 50% we should be definitely ahead there to make call profitable. Our hand is just too strong to c/f river.