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[NL20-NL50] SH 50NL 3b pot, overpair river play

    • gonepoker
      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 439
      SB: $94.30
      Hero (BB): $50.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 6, AF: 3.1, Hands: 28396
      UTG: $49.46
      MP: $107.37 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 21, 3B: 2, F to 3b 50% (6), F2 cbet 67% (3), wwsf 38% (16), WTSD 25%, AF: 3.0, bet river 0%, Hands: 110
      CO: $60.43
      BTN: $67.42

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q :heart: Q :club:
      1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, MP calls $3.50

      Flop: ($10.25) 9 :club: J :spade: 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.12, MP calls $5.12

      Turn: ($20.49) 7 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $10.24, MP calls $10.24

      River: ($40.97) J :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $29.64, MP calls $29.64

      He doesnt look like aggro player so I didnt x/r turn because he might check back hand like TT or AJ.

      I think his range on the river is:
      TT,JdJc,JhJc,9d9h,9d9c,9h9c,AhJh,AcJc,AhJc,AcJh, sometimes 89s, or 9Ts too I guess.
      Vs that range it's 50/50 but probably I couldn't expect to get called by TT every time if I shove?
      So probably I should x/f?
  • 1 reply
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      You can exclude some of the sets as they raise flop or turn oftentimes.
      Also I think TT is folding the turn.

      I bet 7 on the flop and as played 14 on the turn as there are quite some draws.
      I'm definitely shoving non-J rivers as well, but on the J imo a c/f is probably best.