[NL2-NL10] NL4SH A9s SS shove

    • Firefly52
      Joined: 20.01.2011 Posts: 147
      Hard hand here, lot of different opinions about it:

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 9.
      MP2 calls $0.04, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BU folds, SB calls $0.14, BB raises to $1.03, MP2 folds, Hero calls $0.87, SB folds.

      Flop: ($2.26) J, A, T (2 players)

      Turn: ($2.26) 8 (2 players)

      River: ($2.26) T (2 players)

      Final Pot: $2.26.

      My thoughts while playing:

      At first I wanted to insta-fold, then I noticed the raise was a shove from a shortstack. I looked at the table and saw 9 BB on the table, of which 1 was from an already folded limper, 4 were mine and 4 were from the SB that called me. Now I wondered if this could be an ATC shove for a shortstack, including his own blind, he can win 10bb by shoving 25. I am not supposed to call often because of the bigstack at sb, and the bigstack at sb is not likely to call if he didn't raise in the first place. At this point I figured out that the shortstacks range was probably very wide, if not ATC and decided to call, because I am getting some nice pot odds + it becomes almost impossible for sb to call anything different then a slowplayed QQ+ / AK with me in the pot.

      Afterwards I did some maths:
      For the shortstack:
      With ATC he still has about 25% equity against QQ+, AK and probably a bit more against a wider calling range. This means that if one of us calls, he will on average win 0.25 * 2.26 = 0.56$. If we fold, he will win 0.99+0.40= 1.39$. If he folds, he will end up with 0.99$ (he still loses his big blind). This means that if we fold at least 52% of the time, he is making a profit. This doesn't include that if we are calling 48% of the time, we are calling with a wider range giving him somewhere between 35% and 40% equity, which would make his move profitable aswell.

      Now for me:
      I need to call 87 cents for a 2.26 pot, which means I need an equity of 38.5%. I already think it is likely that the shortstack is in an ATC spot. or at least is playing with a very wide range. I do have an ace blocker, and against a range such as Ax, KQ, 22+ I have a nice 48% equity.

      For me this seems to be an easy call, but no-one agrees so far, where am I thinking wrong?
  • 1 reply
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      I agree with your thinking and you're right regarding the math - but you applied it for the wrong limit.
      The problem is that he is most likely just not good enough to shove any2.
      He's much more likely to have something like 77+,AJ+ (if he even shoves that loose).
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    67.46%  65.97%   1.49% { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }
      MP3    32.54%  31.05%   1.49% { A9s }

      Also you should consider that SB is still left to act.

      If you are up against a shortie you suspect to be very good, it's ok to get it in vs him.