Running above EV - good or bad

    • rhinoneil
      rhinoneil
      Silver
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      OK I am using a very small sample size here but have recently started playing NL HU and am running significantly above EV.
      Now on the face of it that would suggest that I am getting lucky and winning hands that I shouldnt.
      Isnt it possible though that the reason I am winning hands that I shouldnt is that I am playing in such a way that I am taking villains off there hands and therefore winning with what is not necessarily the best hand?
  • 11 replies
    • LudiCoka
      LudiCoka
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2009 Posts: 266
      No, you're not playing that way, because if you did then your EV difference would be closer to 0 and your non-showdown winnings high.

      Does your EV line have a positive trend? I mean does it go higher and higher in graph? If it does than it's good that you run above EV for the time being, you will surely run below at some point. However, if your EV line has a negative trend then you are just being lucky and losing money in the long run with bad play.

      Also, take into consideration that in situations where you get constantly coolered (set over set and similar situations) you could be playing well but just hitting a downswing. How big is your sample size?
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      No, if you're getting people to fold that won't show up in the EV figures. However the EV calculation can be a very misleading indication of "luck".
    • ghaleon
      ghaleon
      Black
      Joined: 17.10.2007 Posts: 5,877
      Small sample size + EV line + analyze = waste of time and energy :)
    • TakeManies
      TakeManies
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2011 Posts: 334
      Brace yourself for the downswing, it's on its way!
    • rhinoneil
      rhinoneil
      Silver
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      Its true that small sample size makes the question irrelevant, other than as a general rule I was wondering if running above EV always means you got lucky or can it mean you are outplaying your opponent post flop?
    • fruktpuff
      fruktpuff
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.09.2010 Posts: 3,982
      EV only changes from actual winnings when either one or all players are All-in.

      Non-showdown winnings do not affect EV, so outplaying your opponent to make them fold has no effect.

      Regards,
      Richard
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Its always a good thing to get more money than you deserve.
    • imbahness
      imbahness
      Platinum
      Joined: 07.09.2009 Posts: 122
      the logic is legit , try out some tournaments and see if ya can ''outplay'' (luckbox)them :D
    • Maniatrix
      Maniatrix
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      EV line doesn't consider hands like

      you: A :heart: A :spade:

      villain: K :diamond: 2 :club:



      flop: A :diamond: 2 :diamond: 2 :heart:

      turn: 3 :spade:

      river: 2 :spade:


      Where most of the money went in before river, then you push the remaining money in on river. No effect on EV line as far as I know!
    • Jan217
      Jan217
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by Maniatrix
      EV line doesn't consider hands like

      you: A :heart: A :spade:

      villain: K :diamond: 2 :club:



      flop: A :diamond: 2 :diamond: 2 :heart:

      turn: 3 :spade:

      river: 2 :spade:


      Where most of the money went in before river, then you push the remaining money in on river. No effect on EV line as far as I know!
      I find this kind of thing irritates my way more than the standard preflop suckout where I can think 'hey, at least my EV line went up!' :p
    • LudiCoka
      LudiCoka
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2009 Posts: 266
      -EV play:

      you: A :spade: K :spade:
      villain: 4 :diamond: 7 :diamond:

      You raise preflop, villain calls

      A :heart: 3 :club: K :diamond:

      You raise 150% pot vilain calls

      6 :club:

      You raise 100% pot villain calls

      5 :diamond:

      You go all-in villain calls and wins.

      Just happened to me so i typed it :D . I know it's the same point as in example above

      EV also doesn't know missclicks, villains calling your well timed bluffs with bullshit because they're too bad to fold...

      EDIT: Removed K :spade: from flop because, well, it's already in your hand.