[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #4 18.10.11

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings

      Here is the homework for the coaching from Oct 18, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Tuesday, October 25 at 6 pm GMT

      Originally posted by chocular77
      need 36,6% equity


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $12,67
      UTG1:
      $7,55
      UTG2:
      $35,65
      MP1:
      $7,25
      Hero:
      $26,6

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:heart: , J:heart:
      UTG1 calls $0,25, UTG2 calls $0,25, MP1 calls $0,25, Hero raises to $1,50, 3 folds, SB calls $1,35, 2 folds, UTG2 calls $1,25, MP1 folds.

      Flop: ($5,25) A:diamond: , T:heart: , 9:heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, UTG2 checks, Hero bets $3,5, SB calls $3,50, UTG2 raises to $34,15 (All-In), Hero calls $21,60 (All-In), SB folds, UTG2 gets uncalled bet back (All-In).

      Turn: ($58,95) 3:diamond:
      River: ($58,95) T:diamond: (2 players)

      Should have enough equity to call


      Final Pot: $58,95
  • 5 replies
    • Firefly52
      Firefly52
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.01.2011 Posts: 147
      Against the best possible hand (AA) you have 31% equity, against TT 32.5% you need 36.7% to make the call. as this is a bit marginal, we can look for some reasons to still make the call:

      UTG2, however has a rather weird line, he limps in preflop (everyone seems to limp on nl25?!), and check/shoves on the flop, a major overshove.

      What could UTG2 possibly have? I personally think he has a preflop range like 99+ (maybe even 22+ for limping in order to setmine) Possibly AT+, KJ+ and JTs+ as well.

      Postflop he either is a huge fish which he probably is anyways with his limping / major shoving, or has the nuts with AA or maybe TT or maybe maybe 99. A QJ/ KQ of hearts / AT+ might still be possible though, without any reads we can assume there is a small chance that he might be fishy enough to play those this way due to tilting on another table / whatever reasons fishes have to play the way they do.

      And lets not forget sb has still to act, who is relatively shortstacked. If he calls, we get some free equity.

      Also, calling is the smallest mistake, if we make an incorrect call, we lose in worst case scenario a bit less then 3$ equity wise. If we make an incorrect fold, we could be giving up up to 50$ equity wise (94% equity vs KK).

      Finally, calling gives us information about the opponents range and playstyle that we can use to make notes / more profit later on, while folding tells us nothing.

      Everything combined: I would CALL
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,068
      if we put on strong range, we still have a good equity

      TT-99,ATs-A9s,T9s,ATo-A9o - we have 45% equity

      if we put him on TT-99, then we have 33% equity. Don't know if he is calling at UTG2 with AT, A9, and T9s. But he is loose so I think we can add atleast AT. So
      if we put him on TT-99,ATs,ATo we have 40%

      Depends on how he plays those AT, A9 hands. If we loose to TT-99, its not that big loss and we cannot be 100% sure that he has only those hands, because he could also raise TT, 99 preflop. So call is ok if we need 36.6% equity

      Plus if we put him on AT, A9, then we also can put him on AJ+, which gives us even more equity
    • OnkelHotte
      OnkelHotte
      Black
      Joined: 16.01.2005 Posts: 18,432
      Originally posted by Firefly52
      Against the best possible hand (AA) you have 31% equity, against TT 32.5% you need 36.7% to make the call. as this is a bit marginal, we can look for some reasons to still make the call:

      UTG2, however has a rather weird line, he limps in preflop (everyone seems to limp on nl25?!), and check/shoves on the flop, a major overshove.

      What could UTG2 possibly have? I personally think he has a preflop range like 99+ (maybe even 22+ for limping in order to setmine) Possibly AT+, KJ+ and JTs+ as well.

      Postflop he either is a huge fish which he probably is anyways with his limping / major shoving, or has the nuts with AA or maybe TT or maybe maybe 99. A QJ/ KQ of hearts / AT+ might still be possible though, without any reads we can assume there is a small chance that he might be fishy enough to play those this way due to tilting on another table / whatever reasons fishes have to play the way they do.

      And lets not forget sb has still to act, who is relatively shortstacked. If he calls, we get some free equity.

      Also, calling is the smallest mistake, if we make an incorrect call, we lose in worst case scenario a bit less then 3$ equity wise. If we make an incorrect fold, we could be giving up up to 50$ equity wise (94% equity vs KK).

      Finally, calling gives us information about the opponents range and playstyle that we can use to make notes / more profit later on, while folding tells us nothing.

      Everything combined: I would CALL
      Super analysis to me!

      I can just say #2
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      PF: Raise should be fine since i'm definitly ahead.
      SB (very loose) and UTG2 (limper) call and we are IP.

      Flop:
      We want to get value and protect our hand so a bet is necessary. Against 2 opponents 3,5 is a little bit to small so 4-4,5 should be better.
      UTG2 c/r AI so lets check our equity:
      We have $21,6 left to win a ~$59 so we need 36,6% equity.

      The Villain is very aggressive so he could have alot of hands but just TP seems unlikely because Hero showed strength against 2 Opponents. Putting him on an exact range is hard so just take all hands which are ahead of us on the flop:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 55.35% 54.83% 0.52% TT-99, ATs-A9s, ATo-A9o
      MP3 44.65% 44.12% 0.52% AhJh

      Excluded AA since with a PFR of 16 he shouldn't be a player who limps such hands.
      Additional hands like KhJh and T9 would be possible. But even against this strong range we get the equity to call so just go allin and hope for a heart.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello everyone,

      We need about 37% equity here to make it profitable. If we consider the opponent even to ship with 2pairs here then we can't really get away. Also we can't put the opponent only sets here. Which makes me think to go broke as well here:

      Board: A:diamond: T:heart: 9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    55.35%  54.83%   0.52% { TT-99, ATs-A9s, ATo-A9o }
      UTG+1  44.65%  44.12%   0.52% { AhJh }

      Best Regards.