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[NL2-NL10] nl4, fr AKo TPTK+NFD into set

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.79)
      BB ($10.62)
      UTG ($4)
      UTG+1 ($4.05)
      UTG+2 ($6.81)
      Hero ($4)
      CO ($6.01)
      BTN ($2.18)

      Dealt to Hero K:club: A:heart:

      fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $0.16, Hero raises to $0.48, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.32

      FLOP ($1.02) Q:club: A:club: 5:club:

      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.64, UTG+2 raises to $6.33 (AI), Hero calls $2.88 (AI)

      TURN ($8.06) Q:club: A:club: 5:club: A:spade:

      RIVER ($8.06) Q:club: A:club: 5:club: A:spade: 7:diamond:

      UTG+2 shows Q:spade: Q:heart:
      (Pre 57%, Flop 69.3%, Turn 84.1%)

      Hero shows K:club: A:heart:
      (Pre 43%, Flop 30.7%, Turn 15.9%)

      UTG+2 wins $7.66
  • 2 replies
    • Firefly52
      Firefly52
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.01.2011 Posts: 147
      well played, you are having some guaranteed equity with your flushdraw to the nuts, and who knows what he might be bluffing with. (KK / any pp?/ any Ax?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DrDunne,

      We need ~36% equity here and even if we put him on just very strong range like this:

      Board: Q:club: A:club: 5:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    60.10%  59.93%   0.17% { QQ, AQs, AQo }
      UTG+1  39.90%  39.73%   0.17% { AhKc }

      We still are getting the equity, so I doubt that I am folding here while he could even have a lot worse hands.

      Best Regards.