[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR SSS 88 in SB

    • roooster85
      roooster85
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.01.2008 Posts: 5
      $0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
      7 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($5.43)
      UTG 1 ($12.78)
      MP ($9.70)
      CO ($6.84)
      BTN ($4.45)
      Hero ($1.70)
      BB ($6.88)

      Pre-flop: ($0.15, 7 players) Hero is SB 8:diamond: 8:club:
      UTG calls $0.1, 1 fold, MP calls $0.1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.5, BB calls $0.4, UTG calls $0.4, MP calls $0.4

      Flop: A:club: J:heart: T:heart: ($2, 4 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $1, UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero folds

      Was it ok not to contibet here? I wasn't sure because of the overcards to my PP, and I thought it was likely for at least one of the callers to have an ace (maybe a jack). Or should I have pushed on the flop nevertheless?
  • 10 replies
    • mguilhon
      mguilhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2008 Posts: 9
      I think you played it well here, it's an easy fold to me. Against relatively loose opponents you're likely to lose 90% of the time with this scary flop. And still you don't have much of fold equity since your stack is about $1,20.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      against 3 players it is check/fold. However, I would push it pre-flop or call for set value, depending on what I know about the UTG limper. But against unknown I tend to push. you are committed postflop anyway.
    • mguilhon
      mguilhon
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      Joined: 11.01.2008 Posts: 9
      pushing preflop here is EV-, imo.
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      maybe you can prove it with calculations?
    • mguilhon
      mguilhon
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      Joined: 11.01.2008 Posts: 9
      Sorry, my mistake. Its EV+

      Considering a FE of 20%, and that the UTG and MP will call the All-In.

      Hero = 88
      UTG and MP Range = 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+


      EV(AllIin) = 0.2(0.35 (blinds + limps)) + 0.8[ ~0.3 (1.70 + 1.70 +1.70 + 0.35) - ~0.7 (1.70) ]

      EV(AllIin) = 0.07 + 0.8 (1,635 - 1,19)

      EV(AllIin) = +0,42

      In the previous calculations I did not include my stack in the pot.
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      you don`t have to, the correct equation (given your assumptions) will be:

      EV(AllIin) = 0.2(0.35 (blinds + limps)) + 0.8[ ~0.3 (1.70 + 1.70 +1.70 + 0.35) - ~0.7 (1.70) ]


      EV(AllIin) = 0.2(0.35 (blinds + limps)) + 0.8[ ~0.3 (1.70 + 1.70 (blinds are raked)) - ~0.7 (1.65) ]


      However, your range estimations aren`t very precise. MP will have a looser range, like 22+, A5s+, 67s+, etc

      On the other hand, UTG will be tighter, I don`t think a lot of people limp here with KJo or QTs. i don`t have much experience on NL 10 though.

      You also didn`t consider your fold equity, opponents are not calling with the whole range. You will often get only one caller. Both players have deeper stacks, so besides having you in the pot, they have to play against each other. This fact makes a call for UTG way tougher. And if UTG calls, MP has also hard decision, because he is committing himself against a midstack.
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
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      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      well played imo. against two opponents and three overcards on the board you can not assume to be ahead.

      heads up I would have made my contibet, ready to lay down against action.

      so I say well played :)
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
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      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by Gremlin68
      well played imo. against two opponents and three overcards on the board you can not assume to be ahead.

      heads up I would have made my contibet, ready to lay down against action.

      so I say well played :)
      Have to correct myself not seeing the further discussion as I posted. Besides the discussion about +EV or - EV which is a bit of advanced and overthinking on this limit (nevertheless always good to see and to think about because our strategy is based upon this) a push preflop as xylere advised is for sure the best solution.
    • adr0001
      adr0001
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      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 271
      I have a question. Suppose hero had KQo instead of 88 in the same conditions. Would it still have been a +EV decision to push?
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      yest, It would be still a +EV decision. With KQ in this spot I would also play push.