[NL2-NL10] nl5 - Massive hand

    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Mis-clicked pre flop.

      After seeing flop & amount of action ahead of me I figured it would be criminal to even consider folding my draw, the equity I would need is pretty small and I figure the OESD had it?

      Known players:

      0.03/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 6:spade: , 4:spade:
      MP2 calls $0.05, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.05, BU raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.27, BB calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25.

      Flop: ($1.50) K:heart: , 7:diamond: , 5:club: (5 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $1.5, MP2 raises to $1.67 (All-In), CO folds, BU calls $1.67, Hero raises to $5.28 (All-In), BB calls $2.23 (All-In), BU calls $3.61.

      Turn: ($17.46) T:spade:
      River: ($17.46) 5:spade: (4 players)

      Final Pot: $17.46

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      MP2 shows (Ad Kd)
      BU shows two-pair, kings and fives (Ks Qh)
      Hero shows (6s 4s)
      BB shows two-pair, kings and tens (Kc Th)

      BU wins with two-pair, kings and fives (Ks Qh)
      BB wins with two-pair, kings and tens (Kc Th)
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Philfox1985,

      Preflop should be standard fold. :)

      Although as you go for flop, I am not a big fan of going broke there. Of course somewhat you might get the odds, but still you just have a draw there. You haven't really invested much into the pot and could already be even against better straight-draws. Or some strong hands and of course multiway. It doesn't mean that you have a draw and therefore always have to go broke. If we put all the opponents in the hand into play and put them some kind of range then I really doubt that you even getting it. With the money you have to invest you need ~35% equity, do you think you get it? Or from what do you think you getting the money in long run with your draw?

      Best Regards.
    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Had a play around with the equilator on this hand. Against opponents actual hands my equity was 35%, but against 3 sets equity is 28% due to the FH draws. Worst case scenario is of course villians having better straight draw, if thats the case it doesn't look very good at all, personally I thought the chances of seeing 6-8 were fairly low, but its not impossible given play.

      As played I needed 30% equity to make a break even call. Odds can get as bad as 35% and as good as 20% depending on BB's and Buttons actions.

      All-in its pretty close either way, if I had analysed all the stats before making the decision (rather than guesstimating in a few seconds as played) it would be a toss up for me, only real issue is that its high variance.