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[NL20-NL50] QTs IP v UTG [NL50 SH]

    • MJQuads
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 383
      Ongame Network $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1487859
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $55.23
      MP: $112.60
      CO: $50.00
      Hero (BTN): $49.75
      SB: $23.76
      BB: $65.94

      CO posts a big blind ($0.50)

      Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is BTN with T :club: Q :club:
      UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, Hero calls $2, 2 folds

      Flop: ($6.75) 8 :spade: 8 :club: 3 :club: (3 players)
      UTG bets $4.50, CO folds, Hero calls $4.50

      Turn: ($15.75) Q :spade: (2 players)
      UTG bets $11.23, Hero calls $11.23

      River: ($38.21) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG bets $37.50 all in, Hero calls $32.02 all in

      I am well aware the call PF is debatable, but what I want to know is, what are the chances I'm not behind on the river?

      Villian stats:
      24/19/2.8AF /70%FlopCbet /22%TurnCbet/430hands
  • 2 replies
    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      I think the preflop call is not bad at all, QTs plays fine in a multiway pot in position.

      The flop cbet oop on 883 board into 2 player is not a good sign from UTG, he could have pocketpairs, strong draws like AcKc/AcJc, sometimes 8x. I would not raise here, because if we go allin on the flop, we would likely be the underdog.

      Asztal: 8:spade: 8:club: 3:club:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        32.51%  32.48%     0.04% { QcTc }
      MP3        67.49%  67.45%     0.04% { TT+, 98s, 87s, AcKc, AcJc }

      Call is a good option, because we have a strong draw with good implied odds, and could stack off villain if we hit.
      On the turn i think we should call again, only trips and AA/KK beat us, plus we still have the flushdraw, and maybe he can continue barreling low pairs to a scarecard like Q (not very likely though given his barreling tendencies...).
      River is very though, because we have the boat, but we only beat a bluff, but i think i would still make the herocall.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Jkob,

      Well, it becomes already pretty complicated on turn. As you put out yourself a good stat which you should be looking for, the TurnCB which is just way too small. Which indicates that he mostly has only made hands there. Do you think he would be 2nd barreling JJ or something similar? Because that's most likely the only hands what you beat.

      I might even be towards folding the turn, or even if I Call with my TP+FD there I wont be Calling on river since you just don't beat much there, just split with a Q at the best. He ain't shipping there JJ.

      Best Regards.