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[NL20-NL50] NL30 preflop math

    • Zemnieks11
      Zemnieks11
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 567
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.30(BB) Replayer
      SB ($29.25)
      Hero ($38.71)
      CO ($21.03)
      BTN ($40.11)

      Dealt to Hero A:club: K:spade:

      fold, BTN raises to $0.90, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $7.85, fold, fold

      Hero shows A:club: K:spade:

      Hero wins $6.90

      SB is 19/15 4,3 3-bet, 58% fold to 4-bet, 7k sample
      So i 4-bet w AKo vs solid reg. If he pushes i have to have 53% to make a profitable call.
      Witch is 22 to call in 39 about 54%. If i put him on push range of QQ+, AKo, Aks i have about 39% equity. so longterm fold 4-bet fold is profitable, altrough i wouldn fold this once i 4-bet it. I put his range tight since this is cold 4-bet and he is more likley to fold than to avarage 4-bet back to his 3-bet, also positions matter. So my toughts are that i could better off 4-bet/fold bluff in these spots but just make it little bit bigger size like 8,20$. anyways is this correct and would you play any different in this spot from what i said? Also got to remmember this is no NL50 and regs are somewhat tigher here with less creativity.
      Btw this is great spot for 4-bet bluff since both their ranges are wide, so until they pick up on my 4-bet this is nice move.
  • 8 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Zemnieks11,

      What about the BTN guy? What's his stats, steals and stuff?

      But of course this a great spot to 4bet/Bluff vs such opponents, although then it's also the case that the opponent has to have rather higher 3bet than this one. Against this one I doubt that we are going to play our AKo very profitable vs his go-broke range, at the best it's a flip for us anyways. Usually in those spots I might even be towards just folding my hand while the nit is in the play.

      If he is folding 58% of the cases to the 4bet then it really has to mean that he mostly 3bets with strong made hands, folds something like AKo/JJ or whatsoever. Although I doubt that the guy would even 3bet with them which often happens with them.

      If we are 4bet/Go-Broke here, we need ~36% equity here. But against something like:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    66.76%  59.97%   6.80% { QQ+, AKs }
      UTG+1  33.24%  26.44%   6.80% { AKo }

      We ain't even getting it, so it's still for me 4bet/Fold unfortunately. Practically turning my hand into bluff and I wouldn't even raise much bigger.

      Best Regards.
    • MathhNes
      MathhNes
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2009 Posts: 953
      interesting :)
    • MathhNes
      MathhNes
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2009 Posts: 953
      what about calling SB's 3b?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by MathhNes
      what about calling SB's 3b?
      Unfortunately nope, we can't really Call profitable vs such a nit-3bet. :( With just calling you ain't gonna play the hand profitable. Unless you expect him also to 3bet hands like AJ/AQ. And even then it's gonna be pretty hard to play it postflop.
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 382
      Why do we need 36% equity? If I put it all together correctly, we would then need to pay 13.18$ to win 42.15$ (vs SB), that would mean we need over cca 31% equity...?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Jkob
      Why do we need 36% equity? If I put it all together correctly, we would then need to pay 13.18$ to win 42.15$ (vs SB), that would mean we need over cca 31% equity...?
      Pot = $0,90 + $3 + $7,85 + $26,25 (SB stack)
      To Call = $21,4
      Pot Total = $59,4 (With Rake)

      Equity = $21,4/$59,4 = 36% equity
    • MJQuads
      MJQuads
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2008 Posts: 382
      Oh sorry, I accidently took CO stack into consideration (that's why I said we would need to call 13.xx$). My bad.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Jkob
      Oh sorry, I accidently took CO stack into consideration (that's why I said we would need to call 13.xx$). My bad.
      No problemo, glad that you hopped by and said your opinion. :) I am not a robot, even I can do mistakes.