[NL2-NL10] 15BB stack, some thoughts

    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Assumptions:
      - everyone folded to us
      - we have 16,15,14BB stack in MP2 (99+, AQ+)
      - there are 5 deep stack players behind. They reraise with TT+, AKs/o or fold.

      Equity needed to call a reraise, after initial raise of 3BB.
      16BB - 3BB - 22BB = 0.371
      15BB - 3BB - 21BB = 0.364
      14BB - 3BB - 20BB = 0.355

      Equity needed to call a reraise, after initial raise of 4BB.
      16BB - 4BB - 23BB = 0.342
      15BB - 4BB - 22BB = 0.333
      14BB - 4BB - 21BB = 0.322

      Nobody will have a hand from TT+, AKs/o in 78.7% of the time, so

      .787 * 1.5BB = 1.18BB

      21.3% of the time we will get one caller (for simplicity, I exclude situations, where 2+ players will get a hand from this range)

      .213 (EQUITY*X - 1-EQUITY*Y)

      99-AQ ~ 31% equity

      3BB raise
      16BB -> .213 (.31*22BB - .68*13BB) = 6.82 - 8.95 = -2.09 -> -0.95BB
      15BB -> .213 (.31*21BB - .68*12BB) = 6.51 - 8.16 = -1.65 -> -0.47BB
      14BB -> .213 (.31*20BB - .68*11BB) = 6.20 - 7.48 = -1.28 -> -0.10BB

      4bb raise
      16BB -> .213 (.31*23BB - .68*12BB) = 7.13 - 8.16 = -2.09 -> +0.15BB
      15BB -> .213 (.31*22BB - .68*11BB) = 6.82 - 7.48 = -1.65 -> +0.52BB
      14BB -> .213 (.31*21BB - .68*10BB) = 6.51 - 6.8 = -1.28 -> +0.89BB

      EV (3BB raise and fold to a re-raise) = 0.541BB

      So if I make a 3BB raise in this spot and will face a reraiser with TT+AK range, I can fold profitably, thus decreasing variance.

      It is also more profitable to fold, even with 4BB initial raise, if your stack is 15-16BB (not 14BB)

      Every good opponent understands, that after making a reraise he is obviously committed against us, so in the idealized situation, we will have only tight reraisers - TT, AKs/o

      Therefore, in simulated game situation, like this one, it will be profitable to add some % of hands like 66-77, AJ to our openraise (3BB) range from MP2, from the game theory perspective.

      Am I correct and what does it actually mean :D
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