Probabilities

    • thunderbird56
      thunderbird56
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2007 Posts: 2,179
      Preflop:
      Probability of being dealt a pocket pair 5.9%
      Probability of being dealt suited cards 23.5%
      Probability of being dealt AA 0.45%
      Probability of being dealt connecting cards 15.7%

      Flop:
      Probability of hitting a three of a kind or quads at the flop when you hold a pocket pair 11.8%
      Probability you will make a pair at the flop, holding two unpaired cards in the hole 32.4%
      Probability of flopping a flush, holding two suited cards 0.84%
      Probability of flopping a flush draw, holding two suited cards 11%

      Turn - river:
      Probability of hitting a flush draw (both turn/river, needing one card to hit) 35%
      Probability of hitting an open-ended straight draw (i.e. 4 straight cards, need one on either end to hit on turn or river) 31.5%
      Probability of hitting a gutshot draw (inside straight draw) on turn or river 16.5%
      Probability of hitting a backdoor flush, holding two suited cards 4.2%
      Probability of hitting a flush on the river 19.6%
      Probability of hitting a straight on the turn 17%
      Probability of hitting a straight on the river 17.4%



      Winning probability between two hands:

      Probability of a lower pocket pair beating a higher pocket pair 18.5%
      Probability of non-suited overcards beating a lower pocket pair 45%
      Probability of suited overcards beating a lower pocket pair 47.3%
      Probability of a dominated hand winning (e.g. AJ vs. AK) 24%
      Probability of a severely dominated hand winning that is suited (e.g. AA vs. ATs) 12.7%
      Probability of an unsuited severely dominated hand winning (e.g. AA vs. ATo) 7.2%
      Probability of two unsuited undercards beating two unsuited overcards (e.g. JT vs. AK) 36.7%
      Probability of two suited undercards beating two unsuited overcards (e.g. JTs vs. AK) 41%
      Probability of two, unsuited, non-connecting undercards beating two suited, connecting overcards (e.g. T4o vs. AKs) 32.4%



      How often does a certain hole cards wins:

      The percentage that this hand wins Pocket cards
      75% AA
      63.5% KK
      56.1% QQ
      50% JJ
      51.1% AK suited
      48.1% AK off suit
      46.5% AQ suited
      43.5% 10 10
      41.7% AJ suited
      42.4% AQ off suit


      Most common winning hands:

      The percentage that this hand wins the pot Poker hand
      31% Two pairs
      27% Pair
      12% Three of a kind
      9% Strait
      9% Flush
      9% Full house
      2% High card
      1% Four of a kind
      1% Strait flush
      1% Royal flush


      Profit expectation from pocket cards:

      Profit expectation for limit $5 - $10 T.H. Pocket cards
      $34.19 AA
      $24.13 KK
      $17.36 QQ
      $12.08 JJ
      $11.63 AK suited
      $8.65 AK off suit
      $8.32 AQ suited
      $7.72 10 10
      $5.69 AJ suited
      $5.47 AQ off suit

      Good luck at the tables!
      thunderbird56
  • 3 replies
    • anc
      anc
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 26
      nice, thank you
    • Herrasmies
      Herrasmies
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.12.2007 Posts: 10
      Thank you, interesting stats.

      Might I ask where you got the winning percentages? Are they from your played hands history? form server?

      I would be most gratefull if I could get a longer listing of winning percentages of pocekt cards. This would give me empiric data to complement academic pondering of different pocket cards.

      If posting/mailing this data is not an option please tell me how you got it. If possible I would duplicate your effort to get this data.

      I can be reached by email at my email
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Originally posted by Herrasmies
      Thank you, interesting stats.

      Might I ask where you got the winning percentages? Are they from your played hands history? form server?

      I would be most gratefull if I could get a longer listing of winning percentages of pocekt cards. This would give me empiric data to complement academic pondering of different pocket cards.

      If posting/mailing this data is not an option please tell me how you got it. If possible I would duplicate your effort to get this data.

      I can be reached by email at my email
      Hello Herrasmies,

      I can highly recommend one of our programs: The Equilator: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/software/6/ for these kind of calculations. There you can calculate the strength of specific pocket cards against other cards, or even ranges of cards.

      One of the best tools for analysing your EV in specific situations :)

      Best regards,
      SoyCD