[NL2-NL10] Nl100: Kq

    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG:
      $29.18
      Hero:
      $27.80

      0.50/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q:diamond: , K:spade:
      UTG calls $1.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5.00, 5 folds, UTG calls $4.00.

      Flop: ($11.50) A:spade: , A:diamond: , 5:diamond: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7.00.

      Turn: ($25.50) 9:heart: (2 players)
      UTG bets $1, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $26.50


      I marked 'check/fold' field.
  • 12 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      I would call and go broke on the river if Q or K come (except for K :diamond:) . Or even with the second 9
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      That's pretty loose. Does one additional ace make you think the utg limp/call/call flop/bet oop turn have nothing more than a bluff?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Well, if the bet is converted correctly, he made a 1/25 pot bet) Limp from UTG likely narrows opponents range to pockets and higher suited Aces. So given 2 aces on the flop and the pot odds, I don`t see why you can`t call 1/25 bet and go broke if you hit a pair)
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      Nah, you're absolutely right. It was a $1 bet. While writing the comment I just forgot about it ;) . Sorry.

      Thanks for evaluation.
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      I say fold preflop, you are to often dominated here by the limper and their could also call other A-high hands or Pairs. You have 27BB and then KQo is not good enough here for me.

      I do not even understand why you raise in MP2 anyway with that hand. Unless you have specific reads about the limper and your opponents behind you, its an easy fold.
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      yeah, I didn`t notice it)
      Of course, its a fold preflop
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      Haha, you're right. I guess I do stupid things from time to time.
    • Gremlin68
      Gremlin68
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.08.2006 Posts: 345
      Originally posted by xylere
      I would call and go broke on the river if Q or K come (except for K :diamond:) . Or even with the second 9
      I agree totally with xylere. Calling the 1$ bet here is so cheap and hitting on river I would go broke, because villain do definitely not have to have an A.

      Maybe xylere could add some odd calculations here, which shows that even if we loose against the A in this hand it's still +EV. I appreciate always very much his mathematical analysis :)
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      well, you have to know how many Ax hands your opponent limp/call from UTG. If you know the range, then its easy.

      assume the range is 77-44,ATs-A8s,ATo

      24 pp hands and 24 Ax hands, but 13 of them are not possible, due to the deadcardz.

      If he plays every hand from his range the same way, 35% of the time he will hold an Ace and 65% a pocket pair)
      So we want Q, K, 9 . That`s 9 clean outs ~ 36%.
      I don`t think any additional calculations needed)

      everything depends on his range. If his range is mainly consist of PP and Ax hands, then given two aces on the flop

      every PP adds 6 possible hands
      every Axo hand adds 6 possible hands (except A5)
      every Axs hand adds 2 possible hands (except A5s)

      Therefore, even with a looser limp/call range from UTG (more Ax hands) this spot seems profitable.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      or make it simple

      pot odds are 26.5:1 -> 3.7% breakeven equity

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 12.784% 12.78% 00.00% 180 0.00 { KdQd }
      Hand 1: 87.216% 87.22% 00.00% 1228 0.00 { 77-44, ATs-A8s, ATo }
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
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      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      I say your calculations are not correct. ;) As a tip, try to reconsider his minraising range on the turn. ;)
    • xylere
      xylere
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      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      haha) great tip) I have no clue whatis the average range of the guy, who is betting 1/25 pot on the turn, after calling a cbet) That`s why I assumed that he is doing such a play with both pockets and Ax hands.