How can a reg with 55/35 stats be wining???

    • PetChoveka
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 5,748
      I`m trying some things in a new poker room and have been fighting with the regs there lately. Strange thing is that their stats are insane. One of the hardest regs is playing 55/35/7 for already 3k hands filtered for 6 people and he is wining. Not wining big but he is still making any profit. He plays like a complete idiot. Minbets in huge pots and overbets small pots. Do u have any ideas how can this be profitable? He`s got like 3k stts for this year.

      One more interesting thing i wanted to ask about. The other regs are doing some crazy sht too. Yesterday the 2nd best reg imo there called my 4bet for 40bb with KTo. Last couple of weeks it seems like theyre trying to get me out of their games. Ofc theyre calling my pushes with hands way out of Nash or any reasonable ranges. Im not complaining about that i`m happy with them playing that lame, but is there any reason for them to keep making -ev plays against me? They aren`t doing this to each other. Any ideas of how to adjust for getting them completely crushed?
      I think they already hate me, bc i got them off the sng leaderboards :D
  • 5 replies
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      It can be frustrating when someone is winning with a style which is very different from yours, but it is profitable to study how this can be.

      If there were an optimal style, then just about anything close to this would be almost as good. If a hand is really marginal, then whether you play it or not doesn't matter. So, players can disagree about whether to play many hands without either being wrong by much.

      Many regs are overly tight. One effect is that a more optimal style will appear loose to these regs, and in comparison with those regs. Another effect is that these regs are exploitable by loose blind steals because the regs don't defend their blinds enough. Even if this player is not playing perfectly, he may be accidentally exploiting the tight regs a lot. He will also play a lot of pots in position against players who defend blinds too often... and that doesn't hurt him either.

      His postflop play might be exploitable, but it might be exploiting others. It could be that he reads some timing tells and knows when some people are probably giving up on the pot. It could be that he is playing badly, but is playing pots against people who play worse, so he isn't losing postflop.

      I'm not sure what to do about spite-calling wars. I don't make spite calls myself nor do I recommend them, but I do recommend calls which might look like spite calls but which are correct against some overly wide ranges. I call these smite calls. If regs are making grotesque spite calls against you tournament after tournament, one strategy is to try to avoid them. This will improve your ROI. (Another strategy if your volume is high is to load sets on top of theirs, gleefully watch their ROIs plummet, and they will quit SNGs after a couple of months. Regs with low ROIs are vulnerable to this.) If several players seem to be doing that against you but not against each other, it could be that they are colluding. That's not a situation you can overcome by yourself. If you think you are being cheated you can ask the poker site to investigate and you can hope they do a good job of this.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,400
      "Smite calls" - love it.

      Pet, just one thought I had: you can avoid making Nash pushes completely, but there are some pushes which obviously become bad if made against someone who is calling too wide. Check for these situations in Wizz.

      A way of adjusting is to tighten your shoving range vs these guys - perhaps just for a while - so that they are more often crushed when calling; if they keep being heavily on the wrong side of your range, they may slow down calling you so wide.


      edit: Pzhon, if you happen to read this would you mind adding me as friend/PM'ing me. I've acquired ICM Explorer (& shipped the $, ofc) and have a question about setting it up for 6mx.

    • elfigus
      Joined: 12.08.2008 Posts: 7,196
      3k sngs? lol it's not a huge sample size..

      i'm still down in ev about 280 buy in in 25.000 6max sngs this year, in 3k sngs he could easily run like god, 6max sng ==> cooler machine.. you need really a huge sample size to deal with variance, and you have to realize that many regs just make $$ because they are running good even if they make lots of ev- push and call
    • Semesa
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 294
      Is this SnG or MTT?
      Around final 3 tables I'd generally be playing pretty close to 45/40 but its very table dependant/stack dependant. I've played 18/15(super nitty imo) on some tables that deep and 60/50 or so on others depending on who is to my left, how many shorties at the table etc. etc.
    • PetChoveka
      Joined: 14.02.2010 Posts: 5,748
      Its a STT SNG