[NL2-NL10] NL2 QQ flush on flop

    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Villain: 24/2/227 hands
      Cbets flop 100%, turn: 100%

      He basicly bets the pot on the flop. I call on the flop because he does bet all his flops and because it is potsize. In the micro's ppl often bet pots when they bluff. The turn shows to me he is unsure because of his size. River I have to check behind even a 2:club: beats me now.


      Now I want to ask something. I want to be able to do proper analyses myself. So I started counting my equity (what I need and what I have) Can you check that for me and see if it is done alright? =D

      Thanks who ever is going to evaluate!

      The equity I will be needing.

      Pot 0.29 / 0.29 / 0.28
      To Call 0.28
      Total Pot 0.57

      Break-Even 49.12%

      Now I was thinking about his 3bet range although it was a min 3bet. And this is what I come op with for my equity on the flop.


      Board: 9:club: 6:club: 3:club:
             Equity   Winst   Split
      UTG    53.04%  51.40%   1.64% { QhQs }
      UTG+1  46.96%  45.31%   1.64% { TT+, AJs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo }


      This all tells me that I can make the call.
      Or rather just don't and fold the hand?


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2)
      BB ($1.70)
      UTG ($3.91)
      UTG+1 ($6.07)
      UTG+2 ($1.56)
      Hero ($2.27)
      CO ($2.12)
      BTN ($2)

      Dealt to Hero Q:heart: Q:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.14, Hero calls $0.06

      FLOP ($0.29) 9:club: 6:club: 3:club:

      BB bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28

      TURN ($0.85) 9:club: 6:club: 3:club: 2:spade:

      BB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

      RIVER ($1.65) 9:club: 6:club: 3:club: 2:spade: 7:club:

      BB checks, Hero checks

      BB shows T:spade: T:heart:
      (Pre 18%, Flop 11.4%, Turn 4.5%)

      Hero shows Q:heart: Q:spade:
      (Pre 82%, Flop 88.6%, Turn 95.5%)

      Hero wins $1.57
  • 3 replies
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      What makes you believe his 3bet range is TT+, AJs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo ?
      His PFR is 2% which is QQ+, AK. Normally the 3bet range will thus be 2% at most.

      T.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Originally posted by Tampaloeres81
      Hi,

      What makes you believe his 3bet range is TT+, AJs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo ?
      His PFR is 2% which is QQ+, AK. Normally the 3bet range will thus be 2% at most.

      T.
      Right I didn't add that in the analasys. Good point you have there.
      I looked manely at his VPIP.
      Thanks for your reaction. Wondering what judge is going to say!

      Regards
      RasTweet
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello RasTweet,

      What's the opponents 3bet? Might be even an idea to just 4bet and get it in. :) But as played I doubt that I'd fold either, while he could easily even 2nd barrel there with just overcards+FD or whatsoever.

      Best Regards.