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[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR AJo ex.1 27.10

    • UnknownJoseph
      UnknownJoseph
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2010 Posts: 5,748
      Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $12.30
      UTG: $10.24
      UTG+1: $15.87
      MP: $14.01
      MP+1: $10.00
      Hero (CO): $10.00
      BTN: $12.82
      SB: $10.00

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A:spade: J:heart:

      UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.55, 4 players) 9:heart: 4:spade: J:club:
      UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.80, BTN calls $1.80, fold, fold

      Turn: ($6.15, 2 players) 4:club:
      Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

      River: ($13.15, 2 players) 2:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.20, Hero calls $4.10

      Hero shows A:spade: J:heart: (Two Pair, Jacks and Fours) (Pre 30%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
      BTN shows J:diamond: J:spade: (Full House, Jacks full of Fours) (Pre 70%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
      BTN wins $20.29


      BTN player:

      Turn: What do you think about it? Bet or not? I think that I had to because he could have had straight draw.
      Cold call stats: 12% so it looks like QQ-22,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KJo+
      so in his range could be: QTs, KJo/s, QJs...
      I bet here a little less because I was ready to fold after his rr.
      River: I think that I could have bet myself here because the pot was so big, river card didn't change much, nothing exactly.
      By checking I wanted to play 'pot control' I didn't want to invest more money in this pot but I think folding here would have been a mistake. Flush draw missed, straight draw too, so I was behind against JJ, 99, 44 and QQ. 44 less probability, JJ too because I had AJ so only 99 and QQ.

      Board: 9h 4s Jc 4c 2h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 51.852% 40.74% 11.11% 11 3.00 { QQ-JJ, 99, 44, AJs, KJs, QJs, AJo, KJo }
      Hand 1: 48.148% 37.04% 11.11% 10 3.00 { AsJh }

      I had 19% EQ need to call... lets give him the very pessimistic range:

      Board: 9h 4s Jc 4c 2h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 82.353% 64.71% 17.65% 11 3.00 { QQ-JJ, 99, 44, AJs, AJo }
      Hand 1: 17.647% 00.00% 17.65% 0 3.00 { AsJh }

      Lets see what happens when I added KJs, KJo in his range:

      Board: 9h 4s Jc 4c 2h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 56.000% 44.00% 12.00% 11 3.00 { QQ-JJ, 99, 44, AJs, KJs, AJo, KJo }
      Hand 1: 44.000% 32.00% 12.00% 8 3.00 { AsJh }

      Moreover I looked on W$SD and it was not good. Just 36% so this stat also encouraged me to call. What do you think?
  • 2 replies
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,225
      not at lot you can do here flop and turn OOP. b/f flop, b/f turn. River is where is very close for c/c or c/f.

      What I would ask myself is do you think he is capable of value betting the river with QJ/KJ here? He is kind of TAG stats wise it seems. What would you do on the river with KJ/QJ IP with the pot this size.

      Wouldnt you just check behind? Maybe this is an arguement for a b/c or river shove since we are committed and those hands would call it off, but check behind if we check, I'm not too sure. Just a thought.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello BGawli,

      Well, do you expect he is capable of bluffing missed draws? Most likely I'd just ship myself on river while there are a lot of worse hands which he could be paying us, he is most likely just Checking behind weaker Jx hands which we don't want to.

      Best Regards.