[NL20-NL50] NL25 99 on paired board

    • Meemawuk
      Meemawuk
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2009 Posts: 758
      Obviously I call flop, he can often be cbetting worse. Turn I think he will continue with 2 big clubs and now ever 2 big hearts. Suppose I should just fold if I'm not going to call river here since he has to bluff a lot with his missed draws. Anything I can do differently? Maybe just fold turn if i'm not willing to call down?

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP2:
      $48.77
      Hero:
      $26.7

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:heart: , 9:club:
      MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($1.85) K:heart: , K:club: , 3:club: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $1.32, Hero calls $1.32.

      Turn: ($4.49) 4:heart: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $2.47, Hero calls $2.47.

      River: ($9.43) 7:diamond: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $4.97, Hero folds, MP2 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $9.43
  • 2 replies
    • Beseventh
      Beseventh
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2010 Posts: 2,481
      Problem is that is he turned his TT/JJ/QQ into bluff you are behind here. I would raise here flop and lead turn to see how he plays on this kind of spots. You are ahead here AQ/AJ/AT not much really.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      Against 15% you´re slight favorite on the flop.

      board: KhKc3c
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      99 52.55% 473,670 7,818
      15% 47.45% 427,332 7,818

      strangely your equity would raise 57% on the turn

      board: KhKc3c4h
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      99 57.15% 22,800 264
      15% 42.85% 17,064 264

      So I think I would also call or even raise turn since I can´t really see how he can b/c with TT-QQ or even AA and consider it is half potsize bet you should get folds quite often, if you raise to 6$ and don´t have to worry about river bet.

      As played: call river seems better than folding.