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[NL2-NL10] NL10 Sh, weird hand

    • Wacko118
      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) IPoker
      Hero ($11.57)
      BB ($10.51)
      UTG ($4.60)
      UTG+1 ($14.60)
      CO ($11.60)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: A:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, BB calls $1.10, fold, fold

      FLOP ($3) 4:heart: 9:heart: 2:heart:

      Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

      TURN ($7) 4:heart: 9:heart: 2:heart: T:spade:

      Hero checks, BB bets $7.31 (AI), Hero calls $7.31

      Ok opponent is unknown but so far has been very aggro postflop. But doesnt seem like a fish, apart from this call which i think is just incredible.

      He never has 10s+ here, he prob doesnt have AQ or AJ so i give him a range of pockets 22s-99s.

      Really my check is atrocious here and i should always shove that turn in my opinion since he never has the A of hearts.
      But when he shoves i get 3:1 on my money and i dont think he has a set very often and against a pocket pair i have 33% equity?

      Is my call therefore ok?
  • 5 replies
    • numbnutter
      Joined: 21.09.2011 Posts: 139
      I don't understand your call here tbh - you're going all in with only overcards and a draw? You only have odds of 4:1 to land a flushdraw on the river, and he could still have the A :heart: . Not sure if you can count aces and kings as outs since he could easily have 22, 44, 99, TT.

      I don't think you can cut an unknowns range so easily. Better just err on the side of caution here and c/f or b/f the turn depending on whether you think you're ahead.
    • Meemawuk
      Joined: 27.05.2009 Posts: 758
      He never has TT+? He never has Ah? you are making a lot of assumptions here. I also dont think he ever shoves 33,55,66,77,88. Obviously I dont think He's shoving the nuts or even any made flushes. He should be raising the flop with flushes that arent the nuts, and betting the turn for value with the nuts.

      I think his range is more often:

      Board: 4:heart: 9:heart: 2:heart:  T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    68.78%  65.55%   3.23% { QQ-99, 44, 22, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AhTd, AhTc, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh }
      UTG+1  31.22%  27.99%   3.23% { AdKh }

      Also, you're getting 2:1 on your money here. but it is still the same as 33%. I dont think the equity changes much when you take out the non set pairs.

      Probably slightly -EV spot.
    • Wacko118
      Joined: 21.06.2009 Posts: 300
      Well think about the way preflop action goes, Raise from a tightish player, a caller.
      Then a squeeze.

      he seems like a reasonable ish player. I ended up with 72 hands on him total after this 21/15/2.0/12.5.
      Anyone with half a brain is shoving JJ or better here no questions asked. Even if you called with 10s or JJs here to set mine and get the pfr to call you are sandwiched between 2 players who could have you beat and it is a nightmare for him.

      As for the Ace of hearts. I hold 1 ace so that limits combos, the pfr likely has an Ace but not definite. If he has AK it is shoving, end of.

      I cant see him calling the squeeze with any less than AQs and i never think he has the nuts on this board otherwise he wouldnt play it this way.

      So that leaves him with pocket pairs less than 10s. Sets can be discounted as he will always defend a set on that flop.

      I reckon at best he has a set of 10s.

      Against that range i get 30%. which is just about enough to call although it is very close.

      However since i have already put in $3 into that pot instead of losing it everytime i make it back 1/3 of the time so overall save money?

      As i said again, i think i should of shoved turn every single time, just to fold out his pockets that called and generate fold equity.

      He is also quite aggro postflop and occasionally here he could just be firing with some kind of air every so often...

      Btw he flipped over 77s
    • Alan883
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      I dont know about cBet..i think i would play check/call or check/fold line here.

      turn is of course check/fold.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Wacko118,

      Your Call most likely will be never good there unless you really expect him to bluff with very wide range there like that. Although as you said you don't know much the opponent then standard Check/Fold. :) You wont play profitable in long run if you make such Calls.

      Best Regards.