[NL2-NL10] NL2 FR - Drawing to a flush

    • numbnutter
      numbnutter
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2011 Posts: 139
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $2.28
      BB:
      $1.61
      UTG2:
      $2.03
      MP1:
      $2.02
      MP2:
      $1.98
      MP3:
      $2.00
      CO:
      $2.44
      BU (Hero):
      $2.42


      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, Q.
      5 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, SB folds, BB raises to $0.14, Hero calls $0.06.

      Flop: ($0.29) 8, 3, 8 (2 players)
      BB bets $0.14, Hero calls $0.14.

      Turn: ($0.57) 2 (2 players)
      BB raises to $1.33, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.57.

      So the initial minraise preflop is a definite call right? How about the call on the flop? I'm not quite getting correct pot odds but I figure he's pretty likely to pay me off with his full stack if I hit - is this right or should I just fold it on the flop anyway?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      PF call is standard in position against middlestack who only min-raised.
      I´d prefer raising flop and calling shove. Problem is that you have there too much equity to just call flop and fold to turn shove. For example if he has TT/JJ, you´re flipping against his range:

      board: 8h8s3s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KsQs 48.69% 5,784 0
      TT,JJ 51.31% 6,096 0

      Since he bet half potsize, he can also has AK/AQ that is ahead of you, but likely would fold either flop raise or turn shove

      board: 8h8s3s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KsQs 44.77% 10,470 336
      AK, AQ 55.23% 12,954 336

      You´re only doing bad against aces and kings, although even there you have 30% equity:

      board: 8h8s3s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KsQs 30.45% 2,712 3
      AA, KK 69.55% 6,195 3

      and A high flushdraws, that isn´t too realistic, since players more often call with Asxs than min 3-bet from bb.

      board: 8h8s3s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KsQs 19.55% 189 9
      AsJs 80.45% 792 9

      Giving your overall equity+ fold equity I´d prefer raising flop to 0.45$ and shoving any turn card.