[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH 99 BBvsSB, floped set

    • moniukas
      moniukas
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.09.2010 Posts: 11
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $50.00
      BB (Hero):
      $73.24
      CO:
      $75.66
      BU:
      $48.25


      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9.
      2 folds, SB raises to $1.00, Hero calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($2) 9, T, A (2 players)
      SB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25.

      Turn: ($4.5) J (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB raises to $9.50, Hero calls $6.50.

      River: ($23.5) A (2 players)
      SB bets $38.25, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $23.5.

      Stats after 515 hands:
      vpip 15, pfr 12;
      SB steal 19;
      CB flop 61;
      ckeck/raised turn 2 times out of 3;
      agg flop 2.2, turn 7.7;
      wts 29, w$sd 50;


      On river thought very long about AT or AJ and timed out :)
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I think better is to shove turn, since you would likely end up calling river shove anyway on blank river and better to get all-in against AJ/AT on the tunr before some scary card would come.

      Problem folding river is that he would very likely play the same way KQ, Q8, 78, against that you have 80% equity:

      board: 9TAJA
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      99 79.53% 109,944 0
      78, Q8, KQ, AJ, AT 20.47% 28,296 0

      Even if I add every single hand that beats you, you´re still very big favorite, if he plays also straights that way, so river should be easy call:

      board: 9TAJA
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      99 69.16% 109,944 0
      78, Q8, KQ, AJ, AT, TT, JJ, AA, A9 30.84% 49,032 0