[NL2-NL10] AJs: Push or Fold?

    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1.71)
      BB ($5.73)
      UTG ($0.65)
      UTG+1 ($1.97)
      Hero ($2.03)
      CO ($1.98)
      BTN ($1.45)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: A:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, BTN calls $0.08, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.19) Q:spade: J:diamond: 6:spade:

      Hero bets $0.14, BTN raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.26

      TURN ($0.99) Q:spade: J:diamond: 6:spade: K:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.97 (AI), Hero?

      Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
      Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
      Board :: Qs Jd 6s Kh
      code:
      
       Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                  Range                     
          
         1       34.7     31.6     6.2      JJ-22,AQs-A8s,AQo-ATo,KTs+,KQo,QTs+ 
         2       65.3     62.2     6.2                      JsAs                
      


      Equity needed 33.11%

      So, I should shove here. Is that correct? Can you please help me on the way I review it?

      TY :)

      I may slim down the range to

      JJ, 66, ATs, ATo, KJs+, KQo, QJs

      and than the equity is:

      Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
      Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
      Board :: QsJd6sKh
      code:
      
       Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                Range                    
          
         1       71.5     70.4     2.2      JJ, 66, ATs, ATo, KJs+, KQo, QJs 
         2       28.5     27.3     2.2                    AsJs               
      


      and

      the shove became -EV as my equity will be 28% against 33,11% of equity required to breakeven.

      So, how I must read this hand? Which evaluation is the correct one? And most important, which one is the correct way to anlyse this situation?

      TY :)
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello kiromanAAKK,

      Against such a stack and spot I'd just ship it right on flop to maybe even gain small amount of fold equity. Our hand is strong enough there, Calling wont bring us far since we just had to fold it on turn. :)

      But obviously it's not that wrong if you want to take more passive line.

      Although none of the equity analyzes ain't correct. He might even sometimes have draws there, a lot of Qx hands and maybe even Jx himself. Doesn't seem to be really good player according his stack.

      Best Regards.
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Ok, TY!

      So, can u please write down what range is best to assign to villian?

      TY :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by kiromanAAKK
      Ok, TY!

      So, can u please write down what range is best to assign to villian?

      TY :)
      Even against some strong type of hands, for example like this:

      Board: Q:spade: J:diamond: 6:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    54.16%  54.07%   0.09% { QQ-JJ, 66, AQs, KQs, QTs+, KsTs, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }
      UTG+1  45.84%  45.75%   0.09% { AsJs }

      We are still getting decent equity.