Why are winning players running below EV ??

    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      Hello players,

      I'm just wondering about one thing. It seems like almost all winning players who are winning over a decent sample size are running below EV (especially HU SnG, that's what I'm playing). That makes me wonder...

      Could poker sites somehow adjust their software so that winning players run slightly below and fishes above? Winning Regs will keep playing, well bc they are winning and fishes will be not losing that much. Maybe not even this, software can make up some set up hands favoring the losing player from time to time.

      Just for the record, I'm not the one complaining after my first swing. I actually can't complain against running below EV. It's only slightly, that's just variance. But I've seen people playing 10K's HU SnG's and being hundreds BI below EV.
      Here is my graph of last 3 months playing only HU SnG on Stars (7-30BI), so people won't call me whatever... and maybe take this thread more seriously than others similar to this one.


      I have been noticing that set up hands and suckouts tend to happen mainly against a fish. I'm not convinced that is rigged and actually I believe it's NOT but I'm still wondering, what if.

      Has there been any test on sites that proves this theory wrong. I just want and need to feel that software is absolutely fair. And with the stuff happening around poker right now, one can't really be sure.
      Please share your experience with running below EV or NOT
  • 24 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      The reason why you see more graphs that are bellow EV is simply because if you ran 50 BI above EV you probably wouldn't be making this thread. No one really brags how good he runs so they don't post their above EV graphs and way to many people whine how bad they run so you see a bunch of threads with downswing bellow EV graphs. Most people really don't know how bad variance can get.

      The reason most bad beats happen vs fish is simply because i will never suck out on your overpair with my underpair is because im not stacking off with it while a fish might just stick it in with any pair.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Serkules says hi

      This is his graph.

    • Phenomenomzor
      Phenomenomzor
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.09.2010 Posts: 152
      Because good players dont get their money in when behind as often as fish does. Basically, winning player will get outdrawn more often, because he doesnt give himself a chance to outdraw someone else therefore cant run over EV. Fish doesnt get outdrawn often by winning players therefore wont be running below EV, but they will be outdrawing frequently and running over EV.
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by Phenomenomzor
      Because good players dont get their money in when behind as often as fish does. Basically, winning player will get outdrawn more often, because he doesnt give himself a chance to outdraw someone else therefore cant run over EV. Fish doesnt get outdrawn often by winning players therefore wont be running below EV, but they will be outdrawing frequently and running over EV.
      Lol thats so stupid.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Originally posted by Phenomenomzor
      Because good players dont get their money in when behind as often as fish does. Basically, winning player will get outdrawn more often, because he doesnt give himself a chance to outdraw someone else therefore cant run over EV. Fish doesnt get outdrawn often by winning players therefore wont be running below EV, but they will be outdrawing frequently and running over EV.
      Think about what you've said, and then realize why everyone is laughing at this statement.
    • vmarqui
      vmarqui
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2010 Posts: 4,816
      Originally posted by Phenomenomzor
      Because good players dont get their money in when behind as often as fish does. Basically, winning player will get outdrawn more often, because he doesnt give himself a chance to outdraw someone else therefore cant run over EV. Fish doesnt get outdrawn often by winning players therefore wont be running below EV, but they will be outdrawing frequently and running over EV.
      nobel prize for you
    • datsmahname
      datsmahname
      Global
      Joined: 23.11.2009 Posts: 1,366
      Originally posted by Phenomenomzor
      Because good players dont get their money in when behind as often as fish does. Basically, winning player will get outdrawn more often, because he doesnt give himself a chance to outdraw someone else therefore cant run over EV. Fish doesnt get outdrawn often by winning players therefore wont be running below EV, but they will be outdrawing frequently and running over EV.
      false

      Getting your money in good and always winning would have you run above expectation.

      Getting your money in good and always losing would have you run below expectation.

      Getting your money in bad and always losing would have your run below expectation

      Getting your money in bad and always winning would have you run above expectation.

      You can run above or below expectation whether or not you're a good player.
    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      No one really brags how good he runs so they don't post their above EV graphs and way to many people whine how bad they run so you see a bunch of threads with downswing bellow EV graphs. .
      I guess I didn't consider this. Good reasoning.

      wasy8: nice serkules' graph, haven't really seen many similar ones when running above EV
    • bennisboy
      bennisboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2011 Posts: 711
      You'll see fish suck out more than regs purely cos they get all their money in in negative EV situations more often, giving them a greater number of chances to suck out, but in the long run this doesn't mean they will run over EV more often.

      It's like saying if you get your money in with 20% equity ten times, you should win twice. But if you get it in in that same situation 100 times, you should win 20 times... A greater number of suck outs, but same ev. Logic goes vice versa for a reg who usually gets his money in good.

      Variance and EV is a zero sum game, which in the long run across every player can only net to zero. Saying that fish run above and regs below can't really be proven beyond doubt, unless you had a database of every hand ever played... But over a decent sample size, you'd most likely see it close to even within statistical bounds.

      Whether you want to believe if sites are fair or not is ultimately down to you. People can give you any evidence they want, and people will tell you both sides of the debate are the right one
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Didn't that Ashton Griffin (sp?) run about $2mil over EV in PLO. His graph was on here a while back :)
    • GodlikeRoy
      GodlikeRoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.10.2010 Posts: 337
      It's b/c people always post graphs when they're running way below EV but rarely post them when they're running way above EV. I'm running above EV right now:

    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Wow, how many flips did you win between hand 17k and 26k? :D
    • buzzinowt
      buzzinowt
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      Joined: 12.09.2011 Posts: 80
      It has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the main sites aren't rigged.
    • furculision
      furculision
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2011 Posts: 474
      Originally posted by buzzinowt
      It has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that the main sites aren't rigged.
      If you're talking about that crap test that was on the news a while ago,then i call absolute BS.First of all,the things that they tested are ludicrously stupid and have no relevance in connection with what was alleged as "rigging".Second of all,the sites would have tried to cover it all up with major cash if the test did actually prove rigging,because it's the logical and +EV thing to make for their business,not even mentioning lawsuits filed for damaging their image,because they can just bring another group of testers to say that they are,in fact,not rigged.

      Anyway,i don't believe big sites are rigged.The only form of rigging running is RAKE.

      THE RAKE IS TOO DAMN HIGH.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      running a ton above EV in hu sng overall.


      I started running over ev when i was grinding hu's like crazy earlier this year. So i don't really know how lucky i really got. played over 100 hu sng on 1 day a few times so.

      Actually felt i got quite unlucky during that month overal.. tons of setups. ended up breaking even either way. but my EV line took a nosedive


      Personally i think EV line should not be looked at for husng's. It just isn't an accurate representation if your lucky or not. since all in spots are only a very small amount of all hands played. And winning different coinflips can hugely affect your EV line.

      For example winning a coinflip when your ahead 2 to 1 is worth less then losing a coinflip when the stacks are equal. So now you won and lost 1 coinflip but your running above EV. While losing the headsup too.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      In the small amount of HU SnGs i've played i've also noticed that the EV line just doesn't make sense. For example in one of them I lost QQ vs QK all in preflop when he had chiplead of about 2 to 1 and my EV line went down. This was despite me also losing a flip when I was 2 to 1 chipleader to actually get to the point where the all in busted me.

      Strange indeed :D
    • pavels4444
      pavels4444
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2010 Posts: 1,539
      the all in line is actually most accurate in HU SnG's than in any other SnG's. Of course the EV line is not the only factor to look at. Sometimes you run bad just because of sick set ups that EV doesn't reflect.

      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      Personally i think EV line should not be looked at for husng's. It just isn't an accurate representation if your lucky or not.
      Not true, almost every match ends with an all-in pfr at the end. The pot doesn't have to be big but it adds up. EV simply just reflects your luck in all-in situation and you can see whether you run good, normal or bad.

      Overall, I guess somebody has more luck than other even over a big sample. The fact that I didn't consider were people not posting EV line when they run above. Therefore you see much more often ppl running below ...
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Well how do we explain my phenomenon then? :D

      Lose a 52/48 as 2:1 chipleader to go 2:1 chip deficit, then lose QQ vs QK AIPF to go bust and my EV line goes down? :D
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,765
      Originally posted by Wriggers
      Well how do we explain my phenomenon then? :D

      Lose a 52/48 as 2:1 chipleader to go 2:1 chip deficit, then lose QQ vs QK AIPF to go bust and my EV line goes down? :D
      How did you get the chip lead? It's possible that you were behind in chips earlier on, got all in with the worst of it, sucked out and gained the chip lead. (Not saying that happened, just a theory...)

      i.e., were there really only 2 all-ins in that SnG?

      If there were, it is indeed interesting.

      incidentally, am I right that EV for HU Sngs operates just like cash game, since there is no ICM?
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