[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH 99 steal vs resteal allin calculation

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10)
      BB ($11.93)
      UTG ($12.53)
      UTG+1 ($5.33)
      Hero ($10.70)
      BTN ($8.67)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: 9:diamond:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, SB raises to $0.95, fold, Hero raises to $2.65, SB raises to $10 (AI), Hero calls $7.35

      FLOP ($20.10) T:heart: K:spade: 5:heart:

      TURN ($20.10) T:heart: K:spade: 5:heart: K:diamond:

      RIVER ($20.10) T:heart: K:spade: 5:heart: K:diamond: 2:club:

      vs steal 3bet in SB 9
      fold to 4bet 36
      wtsd 24
      hands 2.7K

      I tried to calculate how much I win or loose:

      I put him on allin range : 88+,ATs+,AKo so he has 60 % against my 99

      I wanted to 4bet, so he would less likely 3bet against me next time.


      0.36 * 1.35 + 0.64 * (0.4 * 10 - 0.6 * 10) = -0.79

      so I win 1.35$ when he fold, and that happens 36% of the time. Another 64% of the time I loose 10$ 60% of the time and I win 10$ 60% of the time. So in the long run for every hand he wins from me 79 cents. Thats huge mistake by me.

      Is my calculation good?

      We can modify the range little bit, but this does not change much.
  • 15 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Well, first of all I'd say that the 9% 3bet ain't that huge. But rather it's somewhat bigger for 2,7k hands. But back to the question either we can do it profitable or not? The question lies on the question how often does he fold to 4bet? As we get that he fold only 36% time. But now again, would he directly go broke with all those range but rather just Call? Different opponents play it differently. Some are just loose and Call.

      So if we take into account that he folds ~36% which means 64% is going to continue of his range. Which is ~5,76% if he 3bets 9% range. Which might be towards something like:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    58.04%  57.18%   0.86% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
      UTG+1  41.96%  41.09%   0.86% { 99 }

      And obviously if we take 9% of the range:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    53.49%  52.87%   0.61% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
      UTG+1  46.51%  45.90%   0.61% { 99 }


      So for conclusion if we use the calculation of EV where we as well know the Fold Equity:
      EV = Pfold * Pot + (1 - Pfold) * (Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment)

      We are getting here vs 2nd range ~$0,26 profit and with 1st range where we have 42% equity we are loosing money ~$0,32. So it's toward a break-even spot anyways for us.

      Best Regards.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      actually I don't undertand all the variables in your formlua.

      EV = Pfold * Pot + (1 - Pfold) * (Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment)


      Ok, I will try to explain what I understand and what not.
      Pfold - is % of fold to 4bet.
      Equity is % of win the hand if it goes allin.
      Win - ? what is it? the whole pot size (ater we both are allin)? Probalby not. Its hard to understand for me :(
      Investment - as I understand is the money which we invest if we decide to 4bet, so practically the remaining stack (we are invested only 3bbs, so if its 100 then 97bbs). We don't push but we can treat the 4bet as push, becasue we are not folding anyway.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Win + Invest is total of all the stacks. :) Like how much does the other opponent have and also we have. So practically all together. Since we will win both stacks, don't we?

      Investment - how much we have to invest, don't take the bet/raise sizes into account, only you have left.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      ok then if we put him on calling range, so we have 42 equity

      Pfold * Pot + (1 - Pfold) * (Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment)


      0.36 * 1.25 + (1-0.36) * (0.42 * (20.1 + 7.35) - 7.35) = 0.45 + 0.64 * 4.179 = 3.12

      How do you get 2.8?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      ok then if we put him on calling range, so we have 42 equity

      Pfold * Pot + (1 - Pfold) * (Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment)


      0.36 * 1.25 + (1-0.36) * (0.42 * (20.1 + 7.35) - 7.35) = 0.45 + 0.64 * 4.179 = 3.12

      How do you get 2.8?
      Well, I did take into account before we 4bet. :) Since if you 4bet here then I am never going to fold my hand. Or do you ever plan to fold vs his aggression?
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      No, I guess we can never fold, after we forbet, because its too much in the pot, and we have too good equity with 99.

      Well, I did take into account before we 4bet.


      But what changes then in the equation? Investment? Before 4bet we invest almost 0, its 0.3. But if we don't 4bet, also we don't have fold equity. Don't understannd still how to use the equation :( There probably is another way to calculate this, because I remember some time ago I did understand, but maybe its was some another way. Could you substitute the numbers into variables your way and then by those maybe I will understand :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      No, I guess we can never fold, after we forbet, because its too much in the pot, and we have too good equity with 99.

      Well, I did take into account before we 4bet.


      But what changes then in the equation? Investment? Before 4bet we invest almost 0, its 0.3. But if we don't 4bet, also we don't have fold equity. Don't understannd still how to use the equation :( There probably is another way to calculate this, because I remember some time ago I did understand, but maybe its was some another way. Could you substitute the numbers into variables your way and then by those maybe I will understand :)
      Well, try to use before the 4bet his whole stack. :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      This was ununderstandable for me, so I choose another method, I remembered - its from Verneer book. Here is the example how he calculates:

      More Math, behind 4-bet jamming medium pockets: We said that if the villain is 3-betting us with a range of ~12%, that range will include a lot of hands that he's going to be folding. Roughly around 2/3 of the hands he is 3-betting he's going to be folding. Vs. a range of TT+, AQ+, a hand like 66 has 38% equity when called. So, assuming 100 BB stacks: - 66% of the time villain 3-bet/folds. We win 13 BB's (our 3 that we opened with and their 10 which they 3-bet with). - 33% of the time they call and we have 38% equity vs. their range. Our share of equity in a 200 BB pot is 76 BBs. Since we risk 97 BB's to do it, the play will cost us 21 BB's in the long run. So: 66% (+13 BBs) + 33% (-21 BB's) = +1.65 BB's.


      So I put my numbers, and instead of BBs I use $.

      36% of the time we win 1.25 $ becasue he folds.
      64% he calls and we have 40% equity, so in 20$ pot our equity share is 8$. We are risking 9.7$ to to this, so in the long run this will loose 1.7$.


      So, 0.36 * 1.25 + 0.64 * (-1.7) = -0.638 $

      so according to verneer's math, we are loosing by this move.

      Ok, if we have 42% win equity, then we have equity share 8.4$, so we loose in the long run 9.7-8.4= 1.3$

      So, 0.36 * 1.25 + 0.64 * (-1.3) = -0.382 $

      still negative ev.

      We actually getting even profit from it ~2,80 (vs 1st range)


      The result differs a lot from you method (assuming we put the same win equities). Why could that be? Different methods should still calculate the same result.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, how can you calculate the EV if you ain't shipping it? :) The calculation you are using is the EV which is calculated when both opponents go all-in. The calculation I used is taking into account the fold equity as well which we know.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      Originally posted by veriz
      Well, how can you calculate the EV if you ain't shipping it? :) The calculation you are using is the EV which is calculated when both opponents go all-in. The calculation I used is taking into account the fold equity as well which we know.
      I thought the calculation I am using it is for both cases included into one - averege EV, no matter if he folds to 4bet or not, because there is taken into account fold to 4bet percentages.

      This should not be that difficult, but somehow I don't get where is everyhing coming from.


      Ok, back to your method:

      Well, try to use before the 4bet his whole stack.


      His stack left after he 3bets you mean?

      So its 9.05

      Pfold * Pot + (1 - Pfold) * (Equity * (Win + Investment) - Investment)

      0.36 * 1.25 + (1-0.36) * (0.42 * (9.05 + 7.35) - 7.35) = 0.15

      wrong :D I don't get the logic of this formula probbably and put wrong values somewhere
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, actually my calculator had a wrong value in it. :D Changed the calculation, should be something similar to yours now. Although win+investment for us is bigger and also the investment before the 3bet from him is $9,70 since we have only $0,30 in the pot.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      I made this now, I get similar value, as you said.

      0.45 + 0.64 * (0.42 * (9.7 + 7.35) - 7.35) = 0,33 $
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      I made this now, I get similar value, as you said.

      0.45 + 0.64 * (0.42 * (9.7 + 7.35) - 7.35) = 0,33 $
      Yep, but obviously it doesn't only add overall image on us but as well might avoid him going for the agro 3bet in future. So it's really up to you, although myself vs such a 3bet-size I'd just Call and play it postflop for an overpair and of course for set value.
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      don't 4b in the first place, just muck it, 4b'ing 99 vs 9% SB 3b range is probably just bad, if u wana 4b and get ur monkey image going just take a hand u can 4b/fold that has blockers to his value range gg
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,073
      I like 4beting, because they 3bet me a lot. I mean if he has 9 % 3bet range, then agains me he should have much bigger, because I am tag, fold to 3bets, and don't 4bet bluff. So I will create an image with 4beting, then I can steal wider and they stop 3beting me. If I call a 3bet, flop comes Kxx and I have to fold to cbet. If flop comes 8xx, still I cannot raise most of the time, because I will not get calls from worse, and isolate against better. If I call the flop then turn comes K and again - the same - I have to fold. And there are some much chance on all 3 streets that I will see overcards, so thats why I don't like calling 3bet with this hand. I do that from time to time, but just told my thinking what happens very often.


      Edit:

      Another thing how could I prevet 3bet bluffs is to steal tight, and call their bluffs. I always will have better range and will be able to call. So then they should stop bluffing, once they see I have a value steal range and I can steal wider again. And repeat this adjusting cycle - again they see I steal wide, then I tighten up and so on. But the problem is that many of the players say that we should steal wide from late positions. By using these cycles I will not have very loose overal steal stats.

      Edit2:

      if u wana 4b and get ur monkey image going just take a hand u can 4b/fold that has blockers to his value range


      I don't think I can 4bet bluff against him even with hands with blockers, because he folds to 4bets rarely. So logically, we should be able to push with wider than usual value range. Which I tried to do there, but was not sure if I make profit, so here I tried to calculate.