# chances to complete a flush draw

• Bronze
Joined: 27.06.2011
I have A 2 and the flop is 4 8 Q
The chances to get X on the turn:
9 / 47 = 19% (every 5.22nd turn brings a card)
The chances to get X on the river (if we didn't get X on the turn):
9 / 46 = 19.5% (5,11st river brings a card)
How do I count the exact chances for turn+river? I know it's somewhere near 33%, but I want more exact numbers + an explanation
• 8 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 17.05.2009
xxx

[edited by purplefizz]
• Gold
Joined: 02.01.2009
You calculate it like this:

19% to get it on turn + 81%(chance to not get it on turn)x19.5%(chance to get it on river given you didnt get it on turn) = 34.795%
• Bronze
Joined: 12.03.2008
ty Jan217! how awesome of you to help out here.

slipkn6t, you can check out this article as well, maybe print out the odds so you have them handy

Odds and Outs Article

smiles,
wendy

• Bronze
Joined: 17.05.2009
understood
• Bronze
Joined: 12.03.2008
Originally posted by LONGPLAY66
understood
ty
• Bronze
Joined: 27.06.2011
Originally posted by Jan217
You calculate it like this:

19% to get it on turn + 81%(chance to not get it on turn)x19.5%(chance to get it on river given you didnt get it on turn) = 34.795%
thanks!
9 / 47 + (38 / 47) x (9 / 46) = 9 / 47 + 342 / 2162 = 414 / 2162 + 342 / 2162 = 756 / 2162 = 378 / 1081
=>
35%
right?
• Bronze
Joined: 27.06.2011
Originally posted by purplefizz
you can check out this article as well, maybe print out the odds so you have them handy

Odds and Outs Article
too complicated for me
• Gold
Joined: 02.01.2009
Originally posted by slipkn6t
Originally posted by Jan217
You calculate it like this:

19% to get it on turn + 81%(chance to not get it on turn)x19.5%(chance to get it on river given you didnt get it on turn) = 34.795%
thanks!
9 / 47 + (38 / 47) x (9 / 46) = 9 / 47 + 342 / 2162 = 414 / 2162 + 342 / 2162 = 756 / 2162 = 378 / 1081
=>
35%
right?
Yep