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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH, A7s turn checkraised

    • funnyclock
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 68
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($11.72)
      BB ($10)
      CO ($14.10)
      Hero ($10)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: 7:club: , fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.90) K:diamond: 4:spade: A:club:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.52, SB folds, BB calls $0.52

      TURN ($1.94) K:diamond: 4:spade: A:club: 7:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.10

      RIVER ($8.94) K:diamond: 4:spade: A:club: 7:diamond: J:spade:

      BB bets $5.68 (AI), Hero calls $5.68 (AI)

      Villain is playing quite standard from just a few hands (around 19/15 vpip/pfr). Everything played out normal until I hit my 2pair on the turn and facing a checkraise from him. I beat any kind of Ace in his range and from the looks of a checkraise on the turn he should have something strong.

      Is my two pair still good here or should I have just folded the turn to that aggression?
  • 2 replies
    • Alan883
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      Here you loose only vs 44 77 since i doubt that villian is going to just call AA KK AK, but for sure 44 and 77 are in his calling range. We can also exclude 77 since he would fold 77 on that flop.

      If my thought are correct then only 44beat us and its difficult to stay out of the hand just because of one possible hand.

      So i think we are not far away from nice hand:) ))
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello funnyclock,

      Well, I doubt that 77 is very likely since he wouldn't float the flop with 77 while even being in multiway pot. It's either AK or 44. But he may still even have some A:dX hand. So against that kind of range our equity is:

      Board: K:diamond: 4:spade: A:club:  7:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    54.97%  44.69%  10.28% { 44, AKs, A7s, A4s, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad5d, AKo, A7o, A4o }
      UTG+1  45.03%  34.76%  10.28% { A7s, A7o }

      We would need ~39% equity. So I'd most likely just ship it on turn. Even if we just exclude the FD type of hands we can still go broke. Not really worth to Call the turn unless you expect him to bluff in those kind of spots.

      Best Regards.