[NL2-NL10] TT NL10 FR - bluffed?

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      How often do I have to be right here?

      I am getting 1.78:1 after he CRAI on the flop so therefore I would have to be right 1/(1.78+1)*100 = 35.97% of the time to make this a break even or better call?

      and we would need the following equity?

      3.28/5.83*100 = 0.56*100 = 56%

      Also do we think villain would check raise all in here with overcards, and weaker pairs 22-33,55-88 and 9X here? Obviously he can have a 4 sometimes as well.

      Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $11.32
      UTG+1: $4.48 (35/4/2.4/33/113 hands)
      Hero (MP): $11.33
      MP+1: $11.04
      CO: $20.02
      BTN: $10.15
      SB: $10.00
      BB: $6.20

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has T:spade: T:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.15, 2 players) 4:club: 9:spade: 4:heart:
      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG+1 raises to $3.98, fold

      UTG+1 wins $2.43
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello muel294,

      Equity calculation is wrong here. We would need ~36% equity, if we exclude rake then a bit more. But comes the question what kind of hands do we expect the villain to raise here? Most likely he would do that with 4x I guess and he has definitely a lot of 9x in his range. For that given part and vs his range I'd even consider going broke. Seems to be really a bad player.

      Best Regards.
    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      equity calc should include our call?

      3.28/(5.83+3.28) = 3.28/9.11 = 0.36*100 = 36% ?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by muel294
      equity calc should include our call?

      3.28/(5.83+3.28) = 3.28/9.11 = 0.36*100 = 36% ?
      Exactly. :)