[NL2-NL10] AJs: Do I shove the flop?

    • kiromanAAKK
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($9.40)
      BB ($2.80)
      Hero ($2.35)
      CO ($1.91)
      BTN ($3.06)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: J:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, SB calls $0.07, BB calls $0.06

      FLOP ($0.24) 6:club: J:club: 8:spade:

      SB bets $0.24, BB folds, [color=red]Hero?

      villian is a fish without any doudt 78/21/2/0.0 H:127

      Equity needed 45% (if I want shove the flop)

      against his presumible wide range: JJ-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A2o, K2s+, K2o+, Q2s+, Q5o+, J4s+, J6o+, T5s+, T8o+, 96s+, 98o, 86s+, 75s+, 65s


      Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
      Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
      Board :: 6c Jc 8s
       Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                                          Range                                              
         1       21.0     20.4     1.2      JJ-22,AQs-A2s,AQo-A2o,K2s+,K2o+,Q2s+,Q5o+,J4s+,J6o+,T5s+,T8o+,96s+,98o,86s+,75s+,65s 
         2       79.0     78.4     1.2                                              JsAs                                         



      he hit the board about 44.7% of the time and leave a 55.3% of FE good


      Villain's range:

      { TT-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,AQo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o }

      33.6% VP$IP
      446 combinations of 61 hands

      Hands with at least 45.0% equity against Villain's range:

      { 22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q9s+,J9s+,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo }

      Best: AA
      Worst: J9s

      30.3% VP$IP
      402 combinations of 56 hands
      0.9 times Villain's range

      and AJs is perfectly inside that range!

      raises to $0.72, SB raises to $2.40, Hero calls $1.55 (AI)[/color] TURN ($4.78) 6:club: J:club: 8:spade: 9:club: RIVER ($4.78) 6:club: J:club: 8:spade: 9:club: 9:diamond:

      Hero shows A:spade: J:spade: (Pre 65%, Flop 60.6%, Turn 0.0%) SB shows 5:club: T:club: (Pre 34%, Flop 39.4%, Turn 100.0%) SB wins $4.47

      Can you please correct my analysis (if needed)?

      TY :)
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello kiromanAAKK,

      Well, why do you assume his donking range is so wide? Do you really think he would ever donk with something like 22-55 in this case? Or any just pure air hand?

      The question rather with what he guys donks here? Could he do that with FD? Could he do that with Jx hands?

      Most likely 2pairs are possible and according his VPIP it might be even something like 68s as well and obviously J8.

      Although against his range and if we even take him as well that aggressive that we may even add FDs into his donking range, then we can easily get the equity to just raise and go broke and defend our hand:

      Board: 6:club: J:club: 8:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    44.31%  44.11%   0.20% { 88, 66, J8s+, T9s, 86s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, 7c5c, J8o+, T9o }
      UTG+1  55.69%  55.49%   0.20% { AsJs }

      So I wouldn't even mind that play as you went for a raise and you expect him as well to donk with FD.

      Best Regards.