[NL20-NL50] Nl25 Sh - EV of check/bet

    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $70,65
      Hero:
      $46,3

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:diamond: , T:diamond:
      4 folds, SB calls $0,10, Hero raises to $0,75, SB calls $0,50.

      Flop: ($1,50) A:club: , T:club: , 2:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1,00.

      Turn: ($3,50) J:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1,8, SB calls $1,80.

      If i only had a flushdraw i would take the freecard since villain will call my bet.
      But here i just have too much outs (if i'm behind) and i thought i would win more money if i hit and he calls my river bet then i loose with my semibluff.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 38.64% 38.64% 0.00% QdTd
      MP3 61.36% 61.36% 0.00% Ah9s


      Case1: i just check and he calls a 2,5bet on river.
      EV1 = 0,3864*(3,5+2,5) = 2,3184

      Case2: i bet turn and if i hit bet ~5,5 river.
      EV2 = 0,3864*(7,1+5,5) - 0,6136*(1,8) = 4,86864 - 1,10448 = 3,76416

      If i only bet 1/2 potsize on river EV = 3,01068

      So a bet on turn should be ok if i think villain can call a 1/2 - 2/3 bet on scary board?

      River: ($7,10) 9:heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $7,10
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      If turn was smt like 6d I´d go valuebet, since he has there Tx, even 2x hands that he might easily c/c, but here ever broadway hand would beat you, he would not fold ever Ax or better Tx hand, so I think better is to take your free showdown and then bet river if you improve.
      No need reason to bet if you´re behind and you know that you can´t fold out better hands+ you can always be ahead if river goes c/c and he shows you small flushdraw or 33 type hand.
    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Ok, thats what i thought in the first place.
      Don't semibluff without foldequity (especially on turn) -> not profitable.

      In this example i just thought my 12 outs + Pair makes this obsolete since i got so much equity.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      yeah, your equity is good, but you don´t really always have to bet if you don´t get called any worse hands.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello chocular77,

      As we discussed the hand already then you know that you can still 2nd barrel the turn. Not for the reason that his range is going to even consist of draws/weaker hands and of course maybe even have a small part of fold equity here. We are also building up the pot for river play. We are very deep here and should be good reason to do that against such a loose opponent who most likely will pay on the river if we still do hit.

      Although I'd raise bigger preflop ~$1 at least and bet bigger on the turn ~$2,40. :)

      Best Regards.