[NL2-NL10] nl5 - 109o vs AK

    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Should just shove flop here?

      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP2:
      $1.35
      MP3:
      $1.84
      Hero:
      $7.58

      0.03/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with T:spade: , 9:heart:
      MP2 calls $0.05, MP3 calls $0.05, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.28, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.23, MP3 calls $0.23.

      Flop: ($0.92) Q:diamond: , J:club: , 7:spade: (3 players)
      MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.53, MP2 calls $0.53, MP3 folds.

      Turn: ($1.98) 5:heart: (2 players)
      MP2 raises $0.54 (All-In), Hero calls $0.54.

      River: ($3.06) 6:club: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $3.06

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      MP2 shows high card ace with king kicker (Ad Kc)
      Hero shows (Ts 9h)

      MP2 wins with high card ace with king kicker (Ad Kc)
  • 7 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Philfox1985,

      Preflop: Well, I wouldn't even isolate such small stack here who are really loose.

      As played
      Postflop: Well, why should we even bet at all here? You will rarely have much fold equity here. Rather Check behind and be happy if you even get a free stack.

      Really seems like you had some kind of tilt factor in your play, way too aggressive and kinda Isolating 99/CBetting 99% while not even taking into account against who you do that.

      Best Regards.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      I played 1600 hands today, I'm only picking up the bigger hands / pots so it will always show more action.

      Why wouldn't I bet here OESD gives me about 30% equity and villians only have just over the pot left in their stacks. With fold equity it doesn't seem a bad / tilty decision at all?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Why wouldn't I bet here OESD gives me about 30% equity and villians only have just over the pot left in their stacks. With fold equity it doesn't seem a bad / tilty decision at all?

      Why should you bet against their stacks? Tell me one good reason? They are never even folding any draw, neither any pair there. :) Your fold equity is near to 5% here maybe at the best. If they don't have a hand you can still take stabs on turn.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      All draws & pairs make up 50% of hands including all gutshot hands and underpairs. If we assume they call that wide, there is a 75% chance of one of the villians calling me, so a 25% chance of picking up the hand on the flop.

      Against that range the equilator puts the chances of hero winning at 39%.

      Given that shoving flop seems to be plus EV.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Philfox1985
      All draws & pairs make up 50% of hands including all gutshot hands and underpairs. If we assume they call that wide, there is a 75% chance of one of the villians calling me, so a 25% chance of picking up the hand on the flop.

      Against that range the equilator puts the chances of hero winning at 39%.

      Given that shoving flop seems to be plus EV.
      I'd most likely even Check behind here against one opponent. But being against 2 opponents their range hardly hits that kind of board and you will have rarely fold equity. I would never assume here ever the numbers you gave here, don't even understand why do you put them here. :D Just assumptions most likely while you didn't use any software.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Put it through the equilator to do that, only issue was that I didn't cut down their pre-flop ranges, its just based on all possible hands.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Philfox1985
      Put it through the equilator to do that, only issue was that I didn't cut down their pre-flop ranges, its just based on all possible hands.
      But well me why shouldn't we just Check behind and most likely even either get free card while being freeplay pot, wait for hit or most likely even get odds on turn and wouldn't have play for whole stack is worse? While you will rarely have any fold equity here. Plus another good case in that is maybe even both opponents go broke then and we get even better odds.

      And putting just their VPIP here and putting that into equilab isn't the best solution in this case. Then you could do that every time with every range, against every opponent and most likely against their ranges.

      But obviously, even if I am betting then I'd just ship the flop.