[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR 99 in BB hits set on turn

    • clandestineAl
      Joined: 14.06.2010 Posts: 569
      First should I have raised pre? I thought he hd 55. I didn't even think about the straight which was my mistake

      Known players:

      0.02/0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9:heart: , 9:diamond:
      UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $0.05, 6 folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.12) K:diamond: , Q:spade: , 5:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG2 checks.

      Turn: ($0.12) 9:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.1, UTG2 raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, UTG2 raises to $4.52 (All-In), Hero calls $4.02.

      River: ($9.16) 6:diamond: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $9.16

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      UTG2 shows a straight, king high (Jc Tc)
      Hero shows (9h 9d)

      UTG2 wins with a straight, king high (Jc Tc)
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello clandestineAl,

      Preflop: Well, you can even easily raise preflop while 99 is strong enough for that.

      As played
      Postflop: Nah, I don't like that much the idea of go-broke directly. The problem is that we are almost playing for 100BB. He may easily even have the JT there which he is representing. He can't really have that many worse sets. But the question is if we should Call his min-raise or not? Do we think that he is capable of playing Kx hands this way? KQ hands? Depending on my expectations I'd act accordingly. You must as well understand that it's just a freeplay pot and people tend not to overplay just their TP type of hands here while they would most likely just Bet the flop. Obviously only 1 hand beat us but it's also just towards to that kind of hand according his play. He can't that often have here K5/Q5/K9/Q5/Q9, so only hope is KQ. For example against made hands:

      Board: K:diamond: Q:spade: 5:heart:  9:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    65.43%  65.43%   0.00% { 55, JTs, JTo }
      UTG+1  34.57%  34.57%   0.00% { 9d9h }

      We ain't getting that great equity which is even towards negative EV. Also if we even consider him having KQ here and he ever would play this way:

      Board: K:diamond: Q:spade: 5:heart:  9:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    47.32%  47.32%   0.00% { 55, KQs, JTs, KQo, JTo }
      UTG+1  52.68%  52.68%   0.00% { 9d9h }

      We are still pretty much against a flip but of course earning small profit from it.

      Best Regards.