[NL20-NL50] FR25 - 88 vs too much cbets

    • chocular77
      chocular77
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,102
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG:
      $25
      Hero:
      $30,85

      0,15/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy.com Elephant 0.102 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 8:spade: , 8:club: . MP3 posts a blind of $0,25.
      UTG raises to $1,00, 6 folds, Hero calls $1,00, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($2,65) K:spade: , K:diamond: , 7:spade: (2 players)
      UTG bets $1,6, Hero calls $1,60.

      Villain cbets with 96%

      Turn: ($5,85) 6:club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $3,5, UTG calls $3,50.

      I played the hand like a float but i didn't realize that i got value and should just check since i won't get better hands to fold.
      Villain range should look like this with a 7% Openraise range from UTG after turn check:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 62.43% 61.22% 1.21% QQ-88, AQs-AJs, AQo
      MP3 37.57% 36.37% 1.21% 8s8c

      River: ($12,85) A:heart: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $12,85
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      Against 7% you have 31% equity:

      board: KsKd7s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      7% 68.74% 266,223 6,534
      88 31.26% 119,283 6,534

      Against reasonable 5% open raise 18% equity:

      board: KsKd7s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      7% 68.74% 266,223 6,534
      88 31.26% 119,283 6,534

      So 88 should be fold that spot although he is c-betting 96%.
      If you´re also calling there pf AK and would raise with 77/AK then I think you can mix up your play raising flop to 4.6-5$ It is very hard him to do with QQ-99 and he would likely only then continue very strong range. Also you then don´t give him option to double barrel his AJ/AQ type hands.

      I think you generally shouldn´t bet turn unless you´re willing to turn your hand into bluff and bet big on the river.
      He would always going to c/c there QQ-99 and c/f likely 66-22, AQ/AJ. So you only get called hands that beat you. Just try to check it down and hope your 88 is ahead.