[NL2-NL10] Improving steals: NL10 K7

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($12.86)
      BB ($11.66)
      UTG ($11.50)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      CO ($11.16)
      Hero ($10.25)

      Dealt to Hero 7:diamond: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold

      Hero shows 7:diamond: K:spade:

      Hero wins $0.25

      SB 34/23/2.6, 3bet 13.8 (29), 68 hands

      BB:
      16/13/1.7,
      fold vs steal in BB 77,
      3bet in BB 8,
      hands 132

      I want to learn stealing loose, so don't be surprized when I will post such hands where there might be loose steals bu t not correct :)

      Those players are not good to steal against, because of 3bet %. As my old style I would have folded. Basically I would have stealen a value range against those, only if my image become nitty, then include some weaker hands.

      So what do you think, is it posible to steal there or not?


      Edit: found that I had the same situation with Q7s and I folded. But Q7s is better probably (hand is weaker but has more potential to improve).
  • 10 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Seems to be pretty standard I'd say to steal with K7. :) Nice hand! Improving your play is always welcome and posting those hands which we can always discuss. For example, if we stealing against random range:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    55.19%  53.42%   1.77% { K7o }
      UTG+1  44.81%  43.04%   1.77% { random }

      Best Regards.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      But those bluff me very often, so even when I have good equity, I thought I can loose overall. I cannot call their 3bets, and I cannot 4bet.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      But those bluff me very often, so even when I have good equity, I thought I can loose overall. I cannot call their 3bets, and I cannot 4bet.
      Fold to BB is still pretty high to be profitable in long run.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      ok, BB is ok player, but yet is SB. I tried to do some math.

      when i open to 3bb, I need to win 66% of the time at least. 0,3 / (0,3 + 0,1 + 0,05)

      BB folds 77 % of the time,
      SB we don't know, but we can assume its like 70% of the time, but might be even less.

      So when we combine those two players, fold equity is: 0,77 * 0,7 = 0.539 its around 54 %

      But I need 66% to be profitable. The difference is 12%.

      Sometimes I win after the flop by cbeting. But how often will I see the flop? They will 3bet more often than call, because they are OOP. Also if they call - how often my cbet will be succesfull?

      If I loose those 12% before the flop, but compensate after the flop, then its ok. But how can I know if I will compensate those 12% loss after flop if it is posible at all.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Sometimes I win after the flop by cbeting. But how often will I see the flop? They will 3bet more often than call, because they are OOP. Also if they call - how often my cbet will be succesfull?

      Well, I don't know how the opponents are playing postflop, so I can't answer you this question. :)

      Also if you think that they are going to 3bet that often and you rarely doubt that you are able to steal here then why do you raise at all? I would say that I am still stealing here and you don't have to always even steal for that amount. If they are 3bet-happy then you can as well just min-raise preflop.

      Also, why do you calculate just fold equity preflop? As you said the difference is 12% but you don't take into account how often we actually can take down it postflop or how often we will hit postflop. Taken that also into account you can steal here.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Also if you think that they are going to 3bet that often and you rarely doubt that you are able to steal here then why do you raise at all?


      I would not raise there but I need somehow to make my steal range wider, so I try to search for the spots where I can steal :)

      I would say that I am still stealing here and you don't have to always even steal for that amount. If they are 3bet-happy then you can as well just min-raise preflop.


      I whink that might be good. But then I also have to steal against this opponent the same ammount with strong hands, because he might quicky "get it" and 3bet me everytime I minraise.

      Also, why do you calculate just fold equity preflop? As you said the difference is 12% but you don't take into account how often we actually can take down it postflop or how often we will hit postflop. Taken that also into account you can steal here.


      I just stopped with 12% because I dont know exactly how to calculate later. I guess. There are so much different variables after the flop - for example if I hit - I still don't have the best hand often, and probably this is most often, because if he calls, he calls with hands which dominate me very often. So I hit king, but don't know what % of the time I loose. I don't know how cbet succes. I can guess maybe that on average I win the pot after flop 50% of the time. But how much is this true. Of course you cannot tell that as well withouth knowing the opponents.

      Ok, I can guess that each of them calls vs steal 10%. So total of 20% of the steals will get called.

      From steals if I don't count the flop I loose 0.12 * 0.45 = 0.054 $

      Now on average I have to win at least this ammount. Sicne I get called 20% of the time - I need to win 5 times more to compensate those remaining 80% of the time when I loose. Which is 0.054 * 5 = 0.27 $

      Now the flop - how can I be sure I win at least those 0.27$ on average when some of them calls? Its Not much - 3 bbs practically. But if they call, they have better range. Maybe its posible to calculate, but we cannot know what range of flop they actually have. How often they fold to cbets on flop. Too much math :)

      I can of course just believe you, because you are more experienced, but would be better to understand.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, I said already the tactic I am using. :D If you are against maniac 3bettors I'd just min-raise preflop. :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      Originally posted by veriz
      Well, I said already the tactic I am using. :D If you are against maniac 3bettors I'd just min-raise preflop. :)
      Tried today minraising against 3betors and it worked ok I think :) they later stoped 3beting that much. Theuy could still 3bet against my minraises, but don't know. Probably when I can steal more when only raise small, then they think they cannot 3bet 90% of the time. While when I raised rarely against those, there where few situation where they can 3bet, and they 3bet all of them and it looks like they 3bet 100%.

      Will post those hands later to review. Now today I guess I have to rest. Yet shipped 2nd place at the 90 man 1.5$ sng for 18$ so earned enough today :D
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, you also getting usually good odds to Call the 3bet. :D Well done with the 90man sng. :) 2BIs for NL10. :D
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,074
      thanks :)