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[NL2-NL10] nl10 fr set on the flop

    • tofu22
      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 659
      Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $11.43
      UTG+1: $10.00
      Hero (MP): $10.00
      MP+1: $19.27
      CO: $9.40
      BTN: $12.30
      SB: $13.13
      BB: $2.33

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8:spade: 8:heart:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.35, MP+1 calls $0.35, fold, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

      Flop: ($1.15, 3 players) 4:heart: Q:spade: 8:club:
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.86, MP+1 calls $0.86, fold

      Turn: ($2.87, 2 players) 5:heart:
      Hero bets $2.30, MP+1 raises to $18.06, Hero calls $6.49

      River: ($20.45, 2 players) 5:spade:

      villain 16/13/11 af/ PF 3bet 2 (514) he was also a player

      when he raised me on the turn i was thinking he would only do this with 2x or a set, a straight i think is unlikely. i don't really see him calling PF + F wiht too many Q8 or Q4 or even 84, so 2x doesn't really fit. with overs he would raise PF ofc, so that leaves 44 QQ.

      but can i ever fold here?

      (the thing that does make me happy about this hand, that i really thought all that before i called)
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello tofu22,

      Well, already the first case here is that we just need ~32% equity. If we even include only 44/QQ into his range then we already getting the equity:

      Board: 4:heart: Q:spade: 8:club:  5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { 8h8s }
      UTG+1  50.00%  50.00%   0.00% { QQ, 44 }

      So I doubt that we can get away here. Just unlucky if he has the hand. :( Also of course if even has 67 then also worth taking note that he cold calls 67.

      Best Regards.